Bitcoin rejected at major resistance hurdle, but is the party over already?

in #bitcoin3 years ago (edited)

In my last post I wrote about how BTCUSD was accumulating and predicted a break higher towards the "key resistance hurdle in the 9000-9250 zone, marked by the 50% of the decline from 11 000 at 9070" ... well let's take a look at what happened when we hit that zone and specifically that 50% level earlier today:

Instant rejection. Though 50% isn't technically a Fibonacci level and it's often dismissed as the "retail fib" (with pro's waiting for the 61.8 and 78.6), you can pretty much bet your ball sack it's going to be important in a big range like the one we're in now:

Anyway so that played out beautifully and I even stuck to my plan - I took profits on my longs and closed out half of my core positions (shamelessly stealing that term from @scaredycatguide btw) ... but what now?

Originally I was predicting a substantial correction from here. I was so confident I even did something I rarely do and mapped the prediction all out on the chart like everyone's favourite Steem chartist, Hae ... who shall not be named:

Well ... now I'm not so sure. I'm definitely not diving back into a margin long up here, but I have thrown the other half of my core position back on. Now I've been totally murdering the market lately, so this latest move is probably just bad timing/bad trading/the inevitable fall from grace, but I do have a few decent reasons to be in full size right now ...

1. We're ascending into a flat top and I fucking love triangles

2. The momentum on the last two surges ... fucking wow!

3. We just smashed through the log scale trend-line^ like a fat man through a fucking pie


^log trend-line courtesy of @Buzzbeergeek

4. It's possible the right shoulder has already formed and is just fucking gimpy and small:

5. Insert a million other fucking reasons here


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Dear @jerrybanfield I love STEEM. You love STEEM. We all love STEEM ... but it's not going to fucking number one market cap. Stop being a manipulative ass and get off the trending page for a bit eh?

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OK I just kinda got bored at the end there and took my boredom out on Jerry. Sorry Jerry.

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Just a technical correction,I think

Nice TA. A correction was inevitable with the resistance zone and the the weekend timing but breaking the log scale trend line is pretty exciting! If we manage to stay above this trend line till monday I expect some nice ride up

Interesting ... I've seen quite a few epic pumps on Sundays, ton of them last year!

Also, this should be a thing:

if we manage to stay above this trend line till monday i expect some nice ride up

LMAO, the combo level of entertaining and educational was high on this post.

If only school was like that!

Great analysis @bulleth. The key indicator to look is Volume. If volume continues to increase we will break major resistance level soon.

Yeah if you look at the 20 day averages on my charts though it's actually on the d-cline. We're a long way off from the billion dollars a day Finex was seeing last year. Lending markets are still suss AF too.

Haha! Gold - “Hae... who should not be named”! 😂

I’m still trying to figure out if those triangles you love are art or science? I have no clue how they work! It has been a pretty promising few days though

Hey Bec - glad you enjoyed :)

Drawing them? Art. Trading them and the probabilities associated? Science ... it's pretty mundane stuff but you can check out Bulkowski's The Pattern Site ... that guy spent years of his life studying them and writing a book on how reliable/unreliable each is ... ascending triangles are one of the better ones, though the buy signal doesn't occur til the flat top breaks

Oh cool - I’ll take a look. I’m not sure how heavily into them I wanna get, but it’s good to understand the key concepts. Thanks 😊

i loved the end of this. brilliant ;)

Why thank you, you might also enjoy my Abstract Underwear Art photography

less so but thanks for the thoughtful headsup ;)

I was surprised lo see this leg up overnight as moves going into the weekend are mostly trying to bring down the market given the thinly traded volume at those times. However, for the last 2-3 weeks we have seen the market in general hold on to gains during weekends. I think this shows that volumes of selling pressure have weakened. If you add the recent increases in volumes during the weekdays, we may be able to breakthrough some resistance as shorts could get a surprise squeeze. Thanks for your analysis.