Near-Term Focus can Blind us to Long-Term Potentials
Let me share the bitcoin video I saw in 2015 which first got me interested in cryptocurrency.
The moral of this video is simple, by looking at the crash, or the day to day activity, we can blind ourselves to the ultimate outcomes in price.
One of the keys to good investing is watching the market at all times, even though, as an investor, you may issue only a few trades a year.
We should not let the market lull us into viewing crypto any differently. If 20k BTC was the cryptocurrency market top, then basically, there is almost no reason to own any cryptocurrency. We should abandon crypto as a failed endeavor... it was a fad.
A few other projects might rally in-spite of BTC going nowhere, but most other cryptos are ultimately funded by an increase in BTC price. If the market decided that BTC was never coming back, then there would be the ending phase capitulation for BTC, where the stalwarts all dump who were long-term investors willing to buy during the declines.
I do not believe this is what we are seeing in the market. Yes, 300 billion market cap for BTC was nuts. The question is not whether it is nuts, though, it is whether the economy can support that price going forward.
Maybe I will get valuation bearish at 1 trillion BTC, but if I do, it is just kind of an arbitrary value. The dot-com bubble was 6+ trillion USD, and if we adjust that for inflation, it would be at least 12 trillion in today's money. The crypto-bubble should in the end, beat the dot-com bubble because this bubble enables everyone with internet worldwide to participate. Anyone can launch an ICO so long as their country does not ban it... even then, it could still be done illegally. Crypto has opened the financial borders of society like nothing has before, and focusing on the day to day activity can cause us to miss this fact.