BTC - Represents rare opportunity with prices below Stock to Flow modelsteemCreated with Sketch.

in #bitcoin2 years ago

Bitcoin may offer a unique opportunity right now with prices below its Stock to Flow model

Bitcoin has been beaten up pretty badly the past few weeks.

Something that many hadn't seen coming a month ago after bitcoin rocketed off the $7k lows to briefly go over $10k.

It looked like the bottom was in and prices were ready to begin their pre-halving ascent.

Except the bottom wasn't in.

Fast forward several weeks and every bit of that move up has been erased, and then some.

Bitcoin briefly touched $6,500 last night as bitcoin saw it's lowest price level since May of this year.

This recent plunge may represent a rare opportunity...

Looking at Bitcoin's Stock to Flow model we can see that bitcoin is now below that model line:


When taking this information in isolation, it's not that unique as there were plenty of times where bitcoin traded below its stock to flow model trend line.

After all, the stock to flow model trend line is more of a general guideline/trend for where prices should(could) trade as opposed to a hard and fast line that they cannot cross.


And this is a big "however"...

There are only a few instances where bitcoin has traded below it's stock to flow model trend line AND been less than 6 months from its next halving event.

It's only happened a couple times, for a very short period of time, and it represented the lowest price point for the next several years.

Is this time different?

It very well could be as we have only had 2 other halving events to go off of.

However, it seems worthwhile to at least pay attention to the setup and possibly worth speculating that it might play out in a similar fashion as the previous two times we saw this same thing happen.

Which means...


(buy the mother truckin dip!)

*Again not financial advice, just the opinion of some random dude on the internet

Stay informed my friends.



Good job 💓

The month with the highest gains for BTC .... disapoint us again :)

Hope that at some point in the next months we will see some green!

April, February, and October become the best performing months when using median returns. :)

February than :)

I actually think we just saw the bottom on bitcoin personally at $6,500. I think we are ready to start heading back up now. We will see.

I still think this is not the lowest we will see...

We shall see, I think we just saw it. The $800 bounce off the lows is the kind of action often seen off the lows.

Everything in BTC charts happens in 4 month cycles... We're about 1 month in for the current cycle... This means we should see the lowest point in December 2019.

I am not buying here as I suspect we will see low 6K soon.

I think we just saw the lows last night with that $6,500 personally. We shall see.

If we can get over 7400 and stay there for a few days, I will be with you on that.

The $800 bounce off the lows told me that was likely it. Those kind of large bounces are what you often see on the lows. No guarantees of course, but I'm thinking it might be it.

Yes the "V" shape of it all was good. Just not certain it went far enough with enough follow up to turn things around.

I think you're right. It should be jumping high in the next couple weeks at least I hope you are right

Thanks for sharing the post, this is very informative.

I do think we've reached a new bottom, at least very near it. The S2F model has proven reliable for determining medium-/long-term trends so far. Hence, I imagine it won't stray too far away from where it presently sits. Below or around $7k may just be a good time to start buying :-)

even if it goes up, I'm not thinking it's going to far. range feels like 7500 - 10,000. below that or above that has been short lived.

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