Bitcoin Day Traders: Take Caution

in #bitcoin4 years ago (edited)

A lot of fear and uncertainty continues to flood the crypto space. Today, the crypto market is surrounded by negative speculation based on a load of chatter. This post isn’t about all the negative but rather a bit of positive insight toward the crypto world.  

Prior to going any deeper, I hope those who read this understand that the world is full of misinformation and disinformation.  An example of disinformation toward the crypto space could have been seen during the peak of Ripple after numerous commentators passed news about Ripple getting listed on Coinbase.

As we learned, Ripple was never put on Coinbase and after news came forth from Coinbase itself stating Ripple was not being listed, we saw the price of Ripple drop.  

Misinformation could be seen regarding nation state laws pertaining ICO’s and Exchanges. Most individuals made assumptions about South Korea lately and with those assumptions, prices dropped. Unfortunately, the assumptions made were fear-based assumptions created on partial truths.

Partial truths and outright false claims have the means to crush the crypto market.  

Recently I spoke to a former US Army Special Forces friend who is heavy into the crypto world and I mentioned to him that, “The crypto space has more active PSYOPS then the US military.”

Everyone who knows anything about the crypto space is trying to push it one direction or another.  

Bankers—say and do anything negative about crypto to keep people away.
Investors—say and do anything about my invested crypto to help push prices up.
Everyday traders—say what all the cool kids are saying so I look cool and get more followers which will       help me become an influencer so I can later push my own investments and see prices go up. 

There are a few individuals however who rarely, if ever, take a side toward any one crypto but rather provide full analysis on the actual market. One of my favorites—Data Dash. Want to explore some solid technical analysis, I suggest going to his YouTube page and checking him out here:

Now, let me cut into the point behind this post—Bitcoin, from a technical analysis view, appears to be on the brink of a major breakout.  This is why I titled this, “Bitcoin Day Traders: Take Caution.”

In the past, I have written two articles about the current correction cycle we were in. You can read them here:

In a comment to the second post, I specifically had written, “I see second week of February we see major gains. This coming week is a big indicator as to where we are headed however, based off some insight from "some folks" who are not actually crypto folks but rather financial gurus, they believe crypto is about to explode here in another week or two. But again, who knows.”

Today, especially after yesterday’s major dip in prices, I feel reassured with my previous comment.  

Yesterday’s major price drop came just a day or two after some major price hikes. And, after this recent major dip, we saw prices quickly come back to decent levels today--Nothing spectacular but not the continued drop.

This recent price dip that followed a nice hike which quickly bounced back upward is a major indicator where things are about to head.  

We surpassed the 50-day mark and are now on the brink of the 100 day. Bitcoin has yet, since its inception, surpassed 100 day lows.  I am not a believer in precise day drops and highs let alone precise 50 and 100 day factors. But I do believe in approximations.

This means, to wait and see exactly what happens on the coming 100 day mark may just bite you in the ass if you are a day trader.  

Everything I am seeing right now per my own personal analysis demonstrates that at any moment, Bitcoin is about to come out of its slump of downward trends and will soon go on a bull run.  And yes, I do see other cryptos doing a bull run as well. In fact, I see Ethereum and Neo actually mooning in the coming days (at latest, another week).

I have done well doing a bit of day trading here and there with my Bitcoin. 

At one point, I was able to get one full Bitcoin in a one week span simply by day trading one full Bitcoin. Yes, with just one full Bitcoin, I was able to secure a second in just one week simply based off some day trading.  

Day trading can come with a heavy cost however.

I have lost a half a Bitcoin by day trading in just a few days. I remember that feeling and remember what it took for me to regain that Bitcoin in full. It was grueling.  Today, I have told myself that right now, based off every indicator and warning (sorry for the military jargon), now is not the time to day trade as the risk is just not worth the reward.  

So, what am I to do right now?

HODL and wait.  

Of note, I am not a personal financial expert and nothing written here should be seen as financial advice.   


“The crypto space has more active PSYOPS then the US military.”

Never truer words my friend. The ripple thing is a great example and it was well done. For those pumping and dumping it....they made out. But let us not forget the long moved it from less than a quarter to solidly over a dollar for the forseeable future and thus, as they latch on to any upward alt coin momentum they start there now.

Gonna have to landline ya, but for the benefit of anyone reading.....what are your thoughts on the indicators that it might jump up a bit and then drop again? I've seen a few analysis folks have done of the current Elliot waves. There's also longforecast, but honestly, having looked at them for a bit now I think they are using a stocks algorithm that is just not compatible with crypto.

Defintitely going to check out your suggested link.

Key in crypto is the fact that their are no true certainties. Their is a ton of speculation but if someone speculates, they need to speculate with some serious analysis behind them. Example: Right now, I am speculating that Neo actually becomes as big as Ethereum and possibly bigger. Not necessarily monetarily but through its continued path of performance. I also believe Ethereum will soon take over Bitcoin. So what does that mean for NEO?

The reason I say this is because I have been looking at patterns, fact sheets, and a lot of noise and chatter which allows me to make my analysis which honestly I believe everyone and their mother would think I am crazy for. But I also understand with my analysis, their are way too many gaps of information which makes it very incomplete hence to me, it should be considered speculation.

thank you kerp

PS....bought time you showed back up here.

Yeah, I needed the break