Simulation highlighting importance of the Corona Lockdown

in #covid1910 months ago

Hello until few days ago Denmark did not do anything about the Corona Virus but now went on full lock down mode. I wanted to highlight the importance to stay home and not meet people with a simulation, which seems to seems to scarily realistically reflect the infections so far and the deaths so far.

Deaths though are for Denmark my only accurate data to verify infections, since Denmark stopped testing for Corona Virus, and Death is the one undisputable symptom. With Scarily I mean is, similar to how the German government already stated, a large percentage of the population will get infected, though for the case of Denmark since unlike Germany, they did more actions, there will be a lower percentage. The German government predicted for Germany 60-70% will get infected.

Using the time where Denmark actively tested Corona people, and people did not care much on how they cough and touch their face, I fitted parameters with a monte carlo experiment to find out how many peoples body fluids we put in our face and how many of them would infect us. So I found that we put 23 peoples body fluids in our face in average and of them the corona fluids will infect us 19% of the time. But due to run time I used limited simulations, so the numbers may vary. Also the code has not been reviewed by anyone so take this simulation with a grain of salt. Post feed back in the comments.

Situation 1: ideal situation, we all take this lockdown very seriously and we meet no one.
Situation 2: we take this lock down moderately seriously and meet in average 1 persons body fluids a day.
Situation 3: we dont take it seriously enough and meet each day 2 peoples body fluids in average.
note that the oscillation of the 3rd scenario have amplitudes almost as high as the entire population of Copenhagen of 800 000, which means high hospitality rates and hospitals will be not able to deal with all these people. This means many die because they cant go to hospital. The effect of hospitals being overloaded is not included in the simulation, so deaths should be in this scenario much higher.

Again if you like to review my code please give me a comment when you did :) and dont panic over it, but give Covid19 the healthy respect it deserves. Take the lock down seriously. Dont smudge your hands over your face or other peoples faces, and dont blow in other peoples faces, do the dab when you cough.

I posted code on github:


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