Lessons from History - Crypto is not really a bubble

in #cry3 years ago (edited)

Long before cryptocurrencies existed, many of us witnessed a technology that was destined for greatness. Those who are old enough to remember the early days of the internet, also remember all the speculation behind it, the negative press, the overly optimistic and the crash of the dot-com bubble "bursting".



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They way it all worked out was very traumatic for many speculative investors. In the early years of the internet, it was very simple to have a company valued in the millions. All you had to do was create a dot-com, go public, and the money would come pouring in. In those early days many companies valued in the millions of dollars had nothing more than an idea, sometimes not even ironed out completely. This did not matter to investors, since they believed there was never a way the stocks would ever crash.

The overly enthusiastic unexperienced investors sold their homes, quit their jobs, and poured every single penny into what we now know was one of the biggest financial bubbles of our time. Of course we know now how it all played out, and we are very aware of the millions of dollars that disappeared into the thin air, almost overnight.

What happened? you may ask - It's actually quite simple to explain. The enthusiasm for the dot-coms was not in any way connected with the realities of their value propositions. This meant, that when investors would buy into a dot-com they did so simply because they were expecting to cash out soon after, and not because of any belief in a company or product.

Eventually the new money dried up, the big players cashed out, and everyone left holding the bags got caught in the crossfire. These recent events should serve as a big lesson for new investors, specially in this new cryptocurrency market.

Not all dot-com companies disappeared


Almost not necessary to point this out, but just in case anyone is confused about the events that followed the crash. As a matter of fact some companies, like amazon and ebay are millions if not billions of dollars bigger today, than before the crash. If we are to be honest with ourselves, there is a very big chance a very similar situation will happen in the world of cryptocurrencies, and we would be unwise to not learn from history.


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This graph shows the marketcap valuation of bitcoin in December, when all of us who were part of this ecosystem believed the numbers would never come crashing down. Of course, today the marketcap of cryptocurrencies is much lower, which makes my point even stronger.

As we can clearly see, the crash was really a way of the market shaking off all the projects that offered no real value to the technology sector at the time. All the dot-coms that were part of a bubble came crashing down to zero. The tech stayed, the real companies survived and today we are participating of an economy that relies heavily on the technology that started back in those days.

Cryptocurrencies will follow


It might not be exactly the same, but it sure will be very similar. Today we have a young market full of speculation, with many investors who are not in the least concerned with research or technology. The idea of many is unrealistic to say the least.

Those investors who don't like to learn from the past will probably endure the same fate. They will buy into speculative currencies that offer little to no real value, waiting to 10x before they sell. Most will fail. That might sound harsh, but honesty is a good token to trade.

I believe in real Cryptocurrencies, specially Steem


For me it comes down to the use of a product or service. In simpler terms, if no one is using something, then it does not really matter what my thoughts on the particular product might be. The known concept of supply and demand at its core is the only one I'm really worried about.

In my last post I shared an image that I think makes my point very clear. Steem in the simplest of ways has a huge advantage over many other cryptocurrencies. Steem, unlike thousands of other tokens has not only a great use case, but the highest number of transaction on the whole ecosystem.




This verifiable information not only gives me peace of mind, but also tells me that all who are participating of the Steem ecosystem are at a clear advantage, even on this bear markets.

There are those who believe that Bitcoin itself won't make it, being the argument that it's sure to be replaced by another top player. This may be the case, but I sincerely doubt those predictions will ever become true. What is more likely to happen is that Bitcoin will continue to become the new gold of the markets, leaving other currencies to fight for the title of "the best currency" in the world.

It's time to rethink why we are here in the first place


For each one of us to really take a hard look in the mirror and ask ourselves if we truly understand what's taking place in the world. The reason why the technology of blockchain is sure to take over our financial system in the near future. If we are simply participating of the markets blindly, not understanding the value propositions, we are sure to make the same mistakes those who cried foul made back in the dot-com days.

So I invite you my friends, to take this time not to trade, not to speculate, but to educate yourself on the technology and be ready for a future that is just around the block.

Stay safe, all the best to you all

@chbartist

edit.- had a glitch with the tags, please disregard first tag

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This was not the largest financial bubble of our time. The dot com bubble was. Also the crypto will not take off until people actually start using it.

As of now most people buy it and hope someone else will pay more of it later on. Where is the value in that? When people start using crypto as a way to pay for say groceries then we will see it grow.

@crypto2crypto do u think bitcoin will grow again?? our experts try to jugde bitcoin by past graphs but they time bitcoin was new and everybody wanted to invest in it... but this time the equation is different

but this time the hype will be even more, still majority doesnt knw about it and will FOMO into it , this will continue .

Of course it will. Not just BTC but the whole market. I think its safe to say that top 100 will still be here in 5 years, hell, even in 10. Not because they are fundamentally good(some of them are, some are not) but because the real hype isn't there yet. Crypto is still in infancy and real working projects are so few. Steem is one of them. Crypto exchanges is another type.

Even if Bitcoin will struggle for the next 5 years- its fine. More time for small fish like us to accumulate and wait till it starts the new insane bull run.

Obviuosly the whole thing may crumble and day. But I say chances for that are close to none.

Unlike fiat currencies, cryptos provide security, trustless transactions, and a predictable rate of inflation. There is real value here.

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I do believe that crypto provides real value, once some of the kinks get worked out. What I don't know is which crypto will emerge in the next five years as the market leader.

I do not think we should be thinking in terms of "market leader" like I hear a lot of people saying, rather "market leaders" there are so many areas that we can benefit from crypto that I think there will be at least 20+ coins that will dominate, now just have to find which ones

@chbartist Bitcoin is the future mate . People claiming bitcoin being a bubble will soon rush into bitcoin once the price of btc shoots up . Am i right ?

I totally agree, cryptocurrencies are a very innovative technological advance, and its real impact will be appreciated in 10 or 15 years.

@adolmac we are heading to the age of complete crypto age. world will agree and follow its transaction some day very soon

Yes! Don't Sell Steem or BTC! Wait! @kishor7070

Dear sir R u sure btc and steem price increased ?@chbartist

BTC is always a growing and evolving crypto so something is bund to shoot it up

Maybe, but the moment is good for day trade. Floating 300 US all day long. I'm increase a profit like 100/200 US per day. Buy in 6100, sell in 6300. All the best @vaibhavlakshmi

thanku @chbartist i also want to do the same can u please suggest me how can we trade can u help me?actully i want to earnsomethng for poor people if u will provide me guidelines so that i can also grow u r seriously good person

you want to show an account to support this claim

@ isacoin which account we want to show?

i was meaning to @chbartist saying is making 200/300 USD trading

sounds like bullshit is why i say to show trading account

ok @isacoin can u exactly tell me another better opportunity for earning i have very short duration for doing something if u any way like trading or crypto gmes please share me thanku @ISACOIN

@chbartist crypto is always fluctuated and trader must keep eyes on it every time to get benefit

@chbartist r u doing trading>? if udo please help me i also ant to trade in crypto if i invest money and you trade on that a/c and profit shares with each other? is it possible if yesplease help me and upvote on my newblog..my inspiration
thanku buddy

500k worth of steem being powered down by whales, should really sell before they take a dump on everyone

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yes at this point we should wait and hold our coin.Soon we will see price will go up

Hold in your private wallets ;-) better avoid centralized exchcanges if any one planning a long term holding

as well keep watch on the main net releases if you have ERC20 tokens in your MEW to avoid token locking

@steem-guru You are right. long time holding is benefit in crypto currency .

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mee too bhai

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Bittcoin will again be a rising sun, after these cloudy days.

@chbartist What is about SBD Price? Is it will go up again?

@chbartist do u think bitcoin will grow again?? our experts try to jugde bitcoin by past graphs but they time bitcoin was new and everybody wanted to invest in it... but this time the equation is different

faith in crypto.. this industry has lot more potential.. no one industry can give you which returns crypto give to us.

Totally agree...
There ain't any sector where you can earn so much profit

Yes! The people who will rush in and buy BTC are those looking to make a fast dollar. Like any trader however they have to know when. It's much more difficult to do when it's a transformative technology with staying power.

https://steemit.com/photography/@harry1301/the-most-hilarious-examples-of-irony-ever ..GIVE AN UPVOTE TO THIS POST AND I WILL FOLLOW YOU AND UPVOTE ON UR POSTS TOO..

Yes! Don't Sell Steem or BTC! Wait! @kishor7070

Will steem explode like BTC? I need your help pls suggest me how to improve my blogs visiting my blog. M inspired from you :)

It will give u more gain that btc mate for sure . Just keep patience

you cant say that based on nothing with all the whales powering down is unlikely for a long time

also bitcoin is proven to hold value better has only lost 60% to alts losing 90%+

and bear market is showing no sign of change to the upside so still except weeks if not months of down before recovery

https://steemit.com/photography/@harry1301/the-most-hilarious-examples-of-irony-ever ..GIVE AN UPVOTE TO THIS POST AND I WILL FOLLOW YOU AND UPVOTE ON UR POSTS TOO..

yes, of course you are right bro

You are right

yes brother you right

@kishor7070 yes buddy it always happens

what to do now hold hold hold or buy I have very low btc

The key here is patience and timing. If you have bought at a very high price, dont just sell off now or else you have to regret later when the prices rise. It doesnot matter if you have low amount of btc, the price of btc is surely gonna rise and then you can sell it and enjoy your profit

Puede que tengas razón, pero muchas personas paciencia es lo que no tienen ahorita!

i think bitcoin sell time after2025

Those who invest without any research and study about projects; definitely they are going to lost their money..

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I gave you an upvote on your post. Please give me a follow and i will you a follow in reture and possible future votes.

kishor7070, I gave you an upvote on your post. Please give me a follow and i will you a follow in reture and possible future votes.

yes BTC will be future.but at this point BTC need much attention of people.BTC will run any time because it holds strong support 6k level.people will enter any time then BTC will be on MOON..

@steem-guru People will definitely Jump in when the rally starts . everyone is playing safe. And the rally will start, only when Whales start Playing .. Isn't it

no its illogical to say will be rally

bitcoin is in serious bear market noone would risk millons trying to pump steem a few cent

agreed. people always chase price.

But to do that also is not easy , as if you want to to enter in early you have to be very attentive.

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Right.Whales definitely push the market peek to high in few days.So i think this is the best time when whales can enter any time in market manipulate the market

flagged for FOMO

yes bitcoin is future but is in serious bear market now with no signs recovery volume gets weaker and weaker and falls more will be months by the looks till return to growth

No doubt it's a correction phase as well some regulation clouds are around.. I believe after a certain level of regulation things will grow with much more rapid pace.. Bitcoin and related networks are really creating a value and have to be part of future.

A correction would be a small percentage over a short time frame

who can say when will return to growth

maybe will keep going down until $1500 and wont go back up untill after the next halving in 2020

Yes it might be .. but price is a direct reflection to any improvment or value BTC is added to whole cryto eco system .. as soon as any such value triggers we can see a price jump

price isnt really a reflection ecosystem grows all the time but prices fall

look at the growth of bitcoins hash rate 14 > 40 in 6 months yet price continues to fall

https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&g=15&t=a

The best part is unlike centralized networks the innovation is happening around the edges of network and open to everyone with any permission . so day by day we can see a lot of value and innovation being added ..

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steem-guru, I gave you an upvote on your post. Please give me a follow and i will you a follow in reture and possible future votes.

Nice, well done .. good tips
Great post from you
Thanks for sharing..

There is future in crypto thats for sure. All the hodlers will have their day when it will skyrocket once again. Lets just grip tightly and hold our coin as much as possible and wait for it to shine again. :)

its all about testing your patience

There should be reward at last

@chbartist I believe in Crypto we believe In crypto We All know that crypto is not a bouble. By the way excellent post.

@chbartist Thank you Very much for your Vote

@avinashdebnath bitcoin is hard to kill now its a digital weed

Thank you for giving us a shot. Hope you consider it money well spent.

the highest number of transaction on the whole ecosystem.

I'm so fucking sick of this bullshit. Well, no kidding it has the highest number of transactions when there are so much automated voting going on with curation rewards and all that going to and fro without commissions. Guess what, this number means nothing at all an realistically steem fares way worse than its peers.

Very pragmatic advice - I remember the dot-com bubble well and the current crypto space ‘feels’ similar - and yes, STEEM truly is a very real value proposition- the fundamentals backing ‘value’ of STEEM are brilliant (literally) - good content postings (such as your post) are the long-term investment in this blockchain and thanks for posting something that informs and something worth ‘upvoting’ and ‘resteeming’ - come on Steemians - make ‘quality’ count -

Great info!

Crypto is not a bubble #deflation

@chbartist yes the steem is the only wonderful coin which can grow when market in bearish mode. & The steemit is one of the plateform where you can earn.

Wow, very hopeful! I'm glad I got in somewhat early!

Truly hope this analysis is right

Bubble or not - the main thing is you can generate cash. the best will win

let's make money, confirmed

lets make money together please help

Crypto is not really a bubble but then y it came down to 5000 dollar from 16000 dollar? can you explanation? @chbartist

@dashing I think i my experience that real value the Bit is 5000 but I believe that Bits Up soon....

Right sir..you are god for newbies who want to invest in crypto

@dashing dude its a market, whatever goes up comes down. It will surely rise again breaking previous records as more people are aware of Cryptocurrency. Only hodlers will enjoy maximum profits after bloodpath. To increase price again we need fresh investors. Keep spreading positivity and ignore FUD. Thanks

Hello... A rough set of data here https://steemit.com/btc/@mikak65/regression-analysis-on-current-btcusd-downside. Actually there was a bubble which is bursting, but that doesn't at all mean this would end the story of BTC or other cryptos.

Yes BTC has come down quite a bit from its meteoric rise at the end of 2017 and into 2018. Even still, as of this writing (06/26/2018), BTC is up more than 140% from one year ago (06/26/2017).

@chbartist Bro it came down to 5000.. Is it right time to sell Steem or BTC?

Do you mean power down? @hasleindia

bitcoin and crypto is revolutionary thing i feel.

Don't sell Steem! Wait

@chbartist Ok bro.. I will Wait

wait for whales to sell?

not right time to sell off rather to save

as always great article. @chbartist
upvoted and resteemed.

For the one's who didn't experience the bubble before are getting panic, but the one's who already did are going crazy in buying the dip.

Stay Calm and control your emotions! Everything Up soon....

Hi @chbartist! Very soon will start accepting by all major online shopping portals.. buyers and sellers over the globe have same value hence prices of goods became cheaper.. in one word " It's a FUTURE"

@chbartist all u have said is excellent, but my question is that...... how long do you think cryptos will hold the position ??

Crypto and blockchain are the future. The Future is now! Don't loss the wave! @d-mistri

yes sir, I'm totally inspired and motivated by you. thanks a lot . have a good day.

Thanks for the above information, So, In your opinion, what do you think is the reason for drastic change in Bitcoin and other crypto currency price? I think it is the immture and uninformed investors who are investing just as a trend and not on their own knowledge and research. What do you think?

Scams, regulation China and India. Wait! The Russia coming soon! But no problem. Go ahead! @mishrpx27

Really a lot of things going on currently with crypto.

I am holding all my coins from last one year. I believe in it. And like every investment it just need time to grow.

@chbartist u are really do great help... by replying to every one.... thnak u... we need more people like u

yes inexperienced and uneducated investors is a serious problem and a major cause for crazy speculation devoid of reason

@chbartist this is a good article and Could you please let me know when is the possible time this market will move up? and also can we expect this to move this Year?

Yes, next months! Wait! @askjoyb

you cant say that maybe will be years,

what is clear is that we are in significant bear market with no signs of change

@chbartist Bitcoin is not a bubble. Bitcoin is the future.
What is your prediction of Bitcoin value at the end of 2018????

bitcoin-2008262_960_720.jpg

I don't know but I'm stay inside! Crypto is the future include BTC. @cherianpsam0

Very good Article. I think BTC is checking our patience that's it will gonna cross 10000 usd soon......
what do you thinkg Am I right?
Thank you :)

Thank you Sir :) We will definitly win.

@chbartist there have very flectuation between december price or todays price...many people lost there lots of money..even today i am in lost. Some people say in few months crypto recover soon is it true??

Yes, I believe that! Stay in position for everything. Reserve your money. The future is now!

Your writing was awesome.I learned a lot.Thanks for share

bitcoin is like our heart beat ...
am i right ??

https://steemit.com/photography/@harry1301/the-most-hilarious-examples-of-irony-ever ..GIVE AN UPVOTE TO THIS POST AND I WILL FOLLOW YOU AND UPVOTE ON UR POSTS TOO..

Public opinion towards Cryptocurrencies has always been divided. However, with the new surge in the market, opinions have become even more polarized. Sceptics hinge on Bitcoin’s first impression as being a black-market currency and call this a bubble, while proponents contend that this is a global currency that is just going mainstream and can indeed go way higher.

So what is actually happening?

A number of market observers are right in noting that Cryptocurrencies are exhibiting bubble-like behavior. For Bitcoin, which isn’t backed by a central bank or doesn’t have a market regulator, this is particularly true, as its value is purely notional. Ether - a digital token that is incorrectly regarded as a Cryptocurrency - has real-world utility, but is still in an early experimental state that does not justify its current market price. In addition, the potential supply of Ether is infinite, unlike the Bitcoin – which has a finite supply hard-coded into its design. Long story short, the critics are right – we ARE in an ebullient Cryptocurrency bubble, and a painful correction is certain – but not imminent.

Why is this happening?

Skepticism notwithstanding, Cryptocurrencies are taking baby steps to going mainstream. In many countries, authorities are actually studying Cryptocurrencies, and exploring ways to regulate them. Even in notoriously conservative regulatory jurisdictions like India, sites like Unocoin are permitting people to buy Bitcoins for cash. Zebpay, another platform, allows you to make small payments using the currency. Each passing day, Bitcoin in particular inches close to mass acceptance and has thousands of new users signing up.

Value as a currency aside, the Blockchain technology that cryptocurrenices are based on has tremendous potential. Ethereum, as a technology platform, has just begun to explore this. A number of Ethereum projects such as the DAO, Akasha, and Gnosis have received an enthusiastic response from the market and have been successful in raising millions of dollars in funding. Today, hundreds of companies, in technology, banking, media, communication, and logistics are looking at ways that Blockchain technology can be leveraged for profit. When these efforts mature, platforms like Ethereum will achieve their true potential, as their Software as a Service (“SaaS”) offering will give users access to obscene computing power at a minuscule cost.

The most prominent factor in this bubble right now, is the Cryptocurrency casino. The utility of the Blockchain and the growing acceptance of Bitcoin do not entirely justify the surge in Cryptocurrency prices. However, millions of people around the world have discovered the speculative opportunities in Cryptocurrencies and have begun to trade them for profit. In fact, all Cryptocurrency trade today may be attributed to speculative trading, as the amount of Cryptocurrency used for actual transactions is microscopic. This is not unprecedented. According to the Bank for International Settlements, global trade in foreign exchange (“FX”) was about USD 5.4 trillion per day in April 2016. Incidentally, the total value of the world’s money – currency and bank deposits – is about USD 81 trillion (Source – CIA World Factbook – 2015). To put this in perspective, money equal to all the notes, coins, and bank deposits in the world changes hands every 15 days on the world’s FX exchanges. This entire market is speculative – run largely by multi-million dollar computers playing against each other. In comparison, the cryptocurrency market, valued at around USD 60 billion, is negligible.

The Cryptocurrency market is gaining in speculative appeal, but this journey is just beginning.

The Japan Factor

Japan is the most mature market for FX speculators in the world. Ordinary Japanese citizens generate a trading volume of hundreds of billions of dollars each week. Starting April 2017, Japanese regulations have made it easier for their citizens to trade Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, and as the chart below shows, a large part of Cryptocurrency trading today is in Yen. Bitcoin, with its massive swings, is the perfect currency for a bold FX trader. In fact, the mainstreaming of Bitcoin will accelerate now that Governments are taking notice.

@chbartist, I'm agree with you, but Bitcoin Investment is very volatile.
Do you have remember year 2013, when Bitcoin played a game with their investors and how can we forget Duration of Feb., 2014 to March, 2017.
it was horrible 3 years for Bitcoin.
What do you think about year Feb., 2018 to March, 2020?? it will repeat or not the same as 2014 to 2017.

Guys, listen to my words.
The crypto-market is going to go on a looong way down, we will have a steady depreciation for many years, but I am sure the crypto-market itself will survive.
All coins without any use will get dismissed and only the strong players will survive and come back stronger than before (see the dotcom-chart).
But right now I am only investing small amounts into crypto, because it is too unsafe which token is going to survive. If you are already in BTC or ETH so hodl longer, it will pay off.
And overall: keep on STEEMing, it is fun =)

I think a lot of if not most of the cryptos will fail. I am bullish on Steem though.

I believe in the digital tokens of the new economy!

I believe in the
Digital tokens of the
New economy!

                 - bammbuss


I'm a bot. I detect haiku.

it makes you think!

it depends on your definition of bubble. there are those who say that since it came from 20k to 5700 it shows it is a bubble. i am a believer but i dont think the price of bitcoin matters in the long run.

it's really beautiful!

I hate the fact that the ICO bubble, which is real and people should stay away from, is giving crypto a bad name.

Ethereum is real, has not even started to be implemented in what I term the INTERNET 2.0 based on block chain technologies.

Blockchain and ‘ether’ are the future. it will be life, so I say NO to a bubble. Eventually one day maybe, but ICO will die a slow death and are in bubble mania and the SEC are looking at investigating them, due to money laundering and criminal activities inside.

We you spend an hour or so on some solid hard core research you will find that is most likely ICO bubble, but not in the crypto space. Some ICO are based around solid air, and people who do not do their research could end up in heart ache and tears.

I agree @kouba01 ico are bubbles but I strongly to purchase existing alt coins rather then going for new icos. However their is an exception like ont has done great work by doing airdrop and got great success.

Yeah you are right it's not a bubble it's a solid power

No doubt 99% of ICO's are a bubble, but people like to gamble.

I don't want to say it,don't debt here

I hope the SEC starts cracking down on these companies as well. I made my prediction about what the SEC will say. I think either is a commodity.

bitcoin will one day be the precious thing of this world. due to its limited supply.. no government should ban it. i helps in development of a country

Bitcoin is still going up, I think!

@chbartist Great Analysis brother but do #BITCOIN will follow the #Dotcom Bubble chart in the future? what do you think on that?

Excelente análisis, @chbartist. Mis saludos.