RE: The .com Bubble and Crypto: Eyes Wide Open
This is a great post in many ways but I disagree with you on many fronts.
I believe comparing the dot com bubble to cryptocurrency is a very slippery slope. It's much easier for a business to go under than it is for a blockchain to. The overhead for a business is gigantic compared to a cryptocurrency. A lot of these crypto projects have been funded so completely that their respective teams could afford to work on them for the rest of their lives.
I find your graphs at the top to be very misleading. Bitcoin (and crypto in general) has had that shape time and time again while Bitcoin has been declared dead hundreds of times. Yet, it just keeps going up in value every year.
To me, it makes more sense that there would be thousands of valid cryptocurrencies. That is the nature of decentralization and a cooperative economy. The true power of crypto hasn't even been 1% unleashed. Every community (and perhaps every person) will have their own blockchain as a representation of trust, reputation, and value to society.
The dot com bubble existed within an ecosystem of competition. Crypto does not. Think about how different everything would be if every dot com company was open source. This fundamental difference is throwing people off and causing a Halo Effect of incorrect extrapolations.
Once again, great post I enjoyed reading it. It's always good to absorb as many perspectives as possible. There are tons of scams out there and there are tons of projects that obviously bit off way more than they can chew. Buyer beware, and all that.
Still, I can't help but notice your post comes right at a time where the market crashes, not from a bubble, but from multiple fronts of bad news like the CFTC subpoena on exchanges and CoinRail getting hacked. The market cap support line has proven itself three times now I'm not too worried about price action.