Bitcoin halving, is it the right time to buy now?

in #gems8 months ago (edited)


"Image from insidebitcoins.com"

Bitcoin rewards users that help maintain it's network by a process called mining. Each block that miners mined successfully (solving computational problems that process transactions between users) are rewarded with new bitcoins. Since genesis of bitcoin,each block rewards was worth 50BTC, and thanks to ingenious design by Satoshi Nakamoto, the block reward is halved after solving of every 210,000 blocks. This roughly will take 4 years to complete. The latest block rewards we are on right now is 12.5 btc per block. The intention of such mechanism is to provide limited amount of new bitcoin come to market, and supply and demand works. This help in pumping up the price of bitcoin.

So I get your point now, so we should start accumulate now?

Exactly. Let's have a look of how last two bitcoin cycles affected bitcoin price in such way.

First halving of bitcoin

Bitcoin price didn't start with a bang, it was a horrible investment that before halving, the price plummeted over 90% - from $31 to $2 between June and November 2011. Afterwards, started to gain traction around November 2011 and reached an all time high of 1200$ in November 2013. This took a year of investor's time, but the gain was 350-400X if you were patient enough. Bear markets landed after the halving event, with a 86% from all time high. The drought lasted for approximately 87 days


Second halving of bitcoin

This took place at early July 2016, Bitcoin had rally up to all time high of 19800$ for a period of 525 days after the fork. After the peak, Bitcoin entered an almost one year bear market that bottomed in mid-December 2018.

In conclusion,


1. Bitcoin halving played a major role in propelling bitcoin price

Based on two halving event, every halving events brings bitcoin to a higher all time high.
This usually happens months after the halving events. In fact, pre-halving signifies a great opportunity to start accumulating position with cheapest price possible.

2. Bitcoin rallied around 12,000% - 13000% in each of it's Halving event


Let’s look at Halving #1.

It took Bitcoin approx 510days to rally up to 13,304% from its pre-Halving bottom of $2.01 to its all time high of $270.94.

Now Halving #2.

It took Bitcoin 1068 days to rally as much as 12,168% from its pre-Halving bottom of $164.01 to its post-Halving top of $20,074.04.

Predicting on halving #3 ( the current halving)


The third halving is said to take place on 17th May 2020, which is in 3 months time. As of this writing, bitcoin took 260 days to rally up to 340% since bottomed at $3152, this means bitcoin price bottomed 520 days before the big rally. This resembles the second halving which also took around 500+ days to rally up to it's new all time high.

Tendency #1

If bitcoin rallies less during pre-halving, it will continue it's rally post-halving

Judging from the previous history of bitcoin price, this stands to be true for both of the previous halving.

Prior to the first Halving, Bitcoin rallied 663% to reach its pre-Halving#1 top but later rallied 3,400% after the Halving.
Prior to the second Halving, Bitcoin rallied 383% to reach its pre-Halving #2 top but later rallied 4,080% after the Halving.

Tendency #2

Bitcoin has rallied 12000% - 13000% to it's all time high after each halving

If the trends continue, we predict bitcoin price might reach as high as 425,000$ or even more based on it's astounding record previously. This is entirely possible due to its scarcity design. If that price stands true, it is possible to eclipse the current market cap of gold which stands around 8 -9 trillion. This phenomena will truly crowned bitcoin as the digital gold!

Tendency #3

New all time high will occur after halving/h6>
Bitcoin set a new all time high after each halving, but this is likely to take place many months after the halving. So be patient guys and keep accumulating the maximum while it's at the bottom. Right now it's very cheap to keep accumulating, your return in approx 1 year or 6 months will be 13000% more or less. Well,history never lies!

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