Why I think Bitcoin's going to peak between $100k-$200k during this cycle

in GEMS2 months ago

How much higher will this next peak be than the prior one in Bitcoin?

Everyone loves to talk about peak prices for this cycle, so I thought I would throw my hat in the ring as well.

I've mentioned $100k and $200k a few times in previous posts and those are numbers I am still looking at now.

I think it's almost a forgone conclusion that bitcoin goes over $100k this year, and possibly over $200k as well.

I come up with these guesses based on previous halving patterns mostly and the clearest way to see them is looking at a chart of prior tops.

Something like this:

image.png

(Source: https://twitter.com/case4bitcoin/status/1365046989465939968/photo/1)

The price just keeps going higher, but if you look at the peaks there is somewhat of a pattern there.

The data following past peaks:

  • 62x
  • 36x
  • 17x
  • ???

While not perfect there is a trend here.

The second peak was 42% lower than the prior one, while the third peak was 53% lower than the second. If we see a similar jump this time around, maybe we see a peak about 65% lower than the prior one.

If we take that 65% lower metric from 17x, we would be looking at about 6x the prior high.

With the prior high around $20k, that would imply the high for the current cycle to be around $120k.

A bit lower than most people think and lower than both past halving patterns project, but something that could be pretty likely if this trend of diminishing returns continues.

What price are you looking at for the peak, and why?

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Sounds good to me - I think this is a healthy consolidation right now.

Same here. Think the bottom is in now. How high we heading Brian?

I have no idea how high... there aren’t companies where you can apply metrics to figure out what the true value is. In three years it could be $1M or it would be $0 - I think the former is more likely tho...

Same here. What do you think we hit this year?

I think this year btc 150 + $

Assuming you mean $150k+ then yep it fits in my range as well.

hopefully what we predicate will happen this year. I am very interested in your review, both in this post and in the previous one.

Yea it should happen this year based on what it's done in the past during these cycles.

yes, it is likely that altcoins will also go back to their past prices if we look at buying in BTC.
hehe

I sure hope they do, no sure they many of the older ones will though.

I sure hope they do,
No sure they many of the
Older ones will though.

                 - jondoe


I'm a bot. I detect haiku.

I hope it goes higher than this, we shall see.

Agreed! $100k to $200k is a real possibility!

Where's the top?

hahaha who knows? let's start with that, then head to 500k!

What do you think high of this year will be?

Realistically I think around 100k. Hopefully. 200k. But would be happy even with 60 to 75k haha. But 100k seems like a very real possibility.

Yea, I remember last time I thought $10k seemed possible and it went double that to $20k. So, a double from where we think is possible of $100k would bring us $200k this time as well. :)

Sounds good to me! haha

I think so. The volatility will be decreased.

I think it will decrease as well, but I still think we are going to see an 80% drop at the end of this cycle high.

I hope it goes to these levels.

I hope it goes higher!

I heard some people calling for $300k or even higher?

People can call for anything they want, doesn't mean it will happen. Hope they are right though.