If history repeats, Bitcoin will peak in August of 2021

in GEMS11 months ago

Bitcoin likely to peak somewhere around August of next year?

Due to the block reward halving events, bitcoin very much moves in somewhat predictable cycles.

At least it has over the course of it's first decade of existence.

Looking back at the previous 2 cycles we can glean a few averages...

  • Bitcoin bottoms roughly 459 days prior to the halving
  • Bitcoin peaks roughly 446 days after the halving

*This past halving saw prices bottom 514 days prior to the halving

image.png

(Source: https://medium.com/@PanteraCapital/macro-impact-on-bitcoin-pantera-blockchain-letter-april-2020-1fdc792d4f33#7076)

Looking forward...

If we take that same data mentioned above and extrapolate it forward, we would see bitcoin peak in August of 2021.

What's more...

If we wanted to get really specific with things, we could expect to see the price of bitcoin trade around $115k by August of 2021 if it repeats the average performance seen in the previous other two halvings.

Keep in mind that we have only had 3 halvings total now so not a ton of data to go off of, but it's currently batting 1000% so it makes sense to pay attention to these patterns until they stop working.

Which means, until I see anything different, I fully expect to see bitcoin hit $100k around August of next year. :)

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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Yeah the crypto markets in particular are quite cyclical and the trends to repeat themselves but with higher amplitudes.

Great analysis, and time to accumulate Bitcoin!

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