A perfect storm of disasters

in OCD11 months ago

I was reading a post or two from the SCT community, and other than being able to count to 10 in Korean, I had to use Google translate. There seems to be a fair bit of talk about "Hive" and one of the posts was about what would give the token value against STEEM. Again, my Korean is shoddy and I have little faith in Google translate's ability, but it seems that they haven't considered that many people are going to dump Steem onto the market, rendering the STEEM token quite rekt.

This is speculation of course, but I would imagine that a lot of users will dump their Steem in favor of Hive Tokens in a chance to get a better ranking with a coin that has a 25% lower supply. They also don't seem to consider who the holders of STEEM are, other than themselves, who they apparently consider among the only buyers of Steem.

This might be true, as if I remember correctly, it was Korean exchanges that pumped SBD to the moon in a market that only Koreans could participate in. But, I might have that wrong, so don't quote me - it was crazy times. SBD has a very small marketcap and is very easy to pump - and dump.

However, with 344M STEEM in the current supply and only about 100M coming out of the inflation pool over the last 4 years, who actually holds all of that liquid Steem on the exchanges? I would say, quite a few of the people who are likely going to be migrating their resources over to a new chain.

After the snapshot, is it Dumperama?

While I am pretty disappointed in how all of this has played out so far, people are pretty predictable and they will go where there is value. The problem is, who is going to buy Steem at the very lows when they didn't buy at 9 cents recently under relatively good conditions with SMTs arriving? Probably the tiny group of people who have been instrumental in this clusterfuck and then, Steem is back at early 2016 with a small group of large holders. How'd that play out? Who knows, perhaps STEEM will get pumped to the moon on Justin Sun hype, but that hype will fade and there won't likely be much left of what is meant to be a content delivery blockchain.

As said, it is all very disappointing that it has come to this, but maybe it is the best thing to do for the community, kind of like ripping off a band-aid, except instead, it is the ninja-mined stake.

I wonder how many Steem holders there will be in 13 weeks from now?

I see the markets as all speculation without even project-level sentiment for most of the alt coins. I don't think most people know that much about what they buy, no matter how much they buy, as long as they think they can make a gain on it. Remember that people bought into Bitconnect knowing that it was a scam - believing they could get out fast enough. Generally, no one is faster than the people running the scam.

People are predictably greedy, and I think that we are in a near perfect storm for crazy, with people globally heavily affected by the virus conditions and all of the knock on effects it has, including the collapse of the financial sectors that will have repercussions for years. Remember though, it was back in 2009 that the bitcoin Genesis block dropped in response to a very similar kind of economic situation and how it was handled.

Over the next weeks and months, there is going to be a great deal of panic buying and selling as what people have considered safe loses its floor, and what people didn't expect to hold, could very well recover fast. Perhaps, these are the times for many crypto projects to start earning their value by providing utility and meaning, instead of riding on pure speculation.

If you want to make money from a community, you will likely first need a community.

For me, I am just playing it all by ear as in real life, things are not going as well as hoped and there will be plenty of belt tightening to come at a time where we were so close to being able to relax and start to enjoy some of what we have worked for.

But, there is always next year, or the year after that, or the one after that one....

[ a Steem original ]


Yes, into the storm we go, marching forward into a sunny sky, but howling wind.

Marching into danger, hoping to find freedom, hoping to build a home.

Marching into danger, hoping to find freedom, hoping to not be alone.

Marching into danger, but heading away from war,
leaving certain failure, for the chance to be more.

Marching into danger, with our emotions on our sleeves, signaling our behavior, to steady our resolve.

Marching into danger, leaving the home we know,
accompanied by friends we know and other brave adventurers, whose intentions we don’t yet know.

Marching into danger, potential enemies around every corner, but friends to the left and right, hopefully watching our back.

Marching into danger, leaving the home we know, hoping for a better tomorrow and to build on what we know.

Posted via Steemleo

Losing 95% of the value of my crypto in the last bear market has made me feel pretty resilient in the face of price dumps. I am confident that whatever protocol demonstrates its ability to provide value and attract an active userbase will eventually rise. That said — I would expect to see some pretty crazy volatility in both HIVE and STEEM in the short term, especially in light of current world events.

I would expect to see some pretty crazy volatility in both HIVE and STEEM in the short term, especially in light of current world events.

Yes, it is going to get crazy.

I am not sure which article(s) you read from the SCT, but I also agree with most of your conjectures.

I expect that both Steem and Hive will go down. I wonder who would put his USD/bitcoin to buy them. On the other hand, it is clear that there will be lots of selling pressure - people who hate current steem will sell, and people who are skeptical about Hive will sell (it was free airdrop so they even may not care about the price).

Based on this (and more), I expect that division would hurt all (in terms of price). So I tried to aid negotiations but it seems that compromise is not coming.

That seemed more like a powerplay where the SCT community wanted to achieve a highly damaging outcome to the STEEM economy, based on greed.

I'm sorry, as an observer I didn't see that as trying "to aid negotiations". More as a "wanna Kingpin" move.

SCT community heavily invested Steem (i.e., bought lots of steem) and as far as I know they(or we) also try to enhance the STEEM economy. Of cource, opinions regarding specifics may differ, but it is natural (unless it is "centralized").

As the author of the original post mentioned, it is truenthat sct or korean community tended to stay away from the governance issues. We realized that all of a sudden our vote becomes critical, and started to learn what each party thinks and we also presented our opinions.

Not sure we wanna be a kingpin(nor could we) - as far as I know, we simply wanted to actively involve and wanted to hear from both sides before making a decision.

Maybe it was due to language but it seemed to me that you initially came to the table with actual requirements, rather than opening negotiations.

Of course, when discovering you hold a decisive stake, there can be a tendency to use that power.

Otherwise, I think the Korean community is a very valuable player in the Steem community. I definitely would have liked to see more Korean witnesses (before acquisition). Maybe it could have led to the dialogue we never had but needed for thriving governance.

A split has now been reached and now you are now an absolutely defining player in the community. Defining in campaigning to keep as many users and dapps as possible, as well as onboarding new members. Here's hoping that STEEM will continue to be a diverse and engaged community. Not a localized one.

PS: I massively respect the decision to support 7 human witnesses to maintain a temporary status quo. Hats off.

I agree that some members from the sct community may have had more "actual requirements" - there's a range of people's attitudes and opinions, as in other communities.

Thank you for the PS part!

While I understand the initial reasoning, by keeping the deadlock up for so long you basically created a situation where the fork was unavoidable. There was a constant threat of another swift move by j where he could unilaterally change core concepts of the blockchain. There wasn't any negotiations happening any more, on the contrary, he blocked all of the other big stakeholders on Twitter.
You had a position to endorse negotiations, but you should have realized when that showed to be fruitless and acted accordingly. At the latest at the meeting in your discord, where he simply said yes to everything your community asked for without looking at any consequences.
Me and a lot of the other witnesses actually took the time to reply in detail to each point (I think under a proxy.token post), but you ignored us completely.

It seems that your view is quite different from mine, which is natural in "decentralization".

I think you know that we continue to try to discuss potential agreement, and we were asked to wait and suddenly there was a posting of fork and the communication stopped. I think I (or korean community) am the one who got fooled by (a few of) "hive leaders" by trusting them.

  • while writing this, I realized that you may not be aware of this, as you were not the main point of contact.

And let me clarify the last part of your reply. We did review your answers carefully (at least I did) and I mentioned/posted appreciation of sharing opinions several times.

It seems that you missed it. It is exactly the opposite of "ignored us completely".

The problem was, the answers were too general to make any concrete improvememt, so we were working on these specific details(or at least we thought).

I haven't communicated with you before, so I am not sure that we are on the same page. Let me conclude this with a simple summary:

While our views may be different, I respected your opinion and did not ignore at all, and even tried to reach potential agreement (albeit slim) until the hive post.

There are no "hive leaders", hive is a community effort. I'm again and again baffled how users who aren't involved in the governance at all come to see the witnesses as a homogeneous group. I'm here since the beginning, and have been a top 20 witness for the first 2 years or so, and you can believe me when I say that there are a lot of disagreements in this group and a lot of people only talk to each other because they're forced to do so by the voting results.

Regarding the agreement you hoped for, the replies you got made it clear that none of the changes you demanded would happen soon, because 1) some of them would break the system and 2) changes are not decided on by a closed group you could bargain with, but after extensive discussion involving the whole community (as it was happening with faster power downs before the whole j story).
You were pointed to the SPS, and it was repeatedly said that the first thing before anything else has to be stopping the centralization attempts.

It's of course up to you to feel betrayed, but to me that's only because you ignored or at least downplayed the statements you got. There wasn't any solution in sight as you kept demanding the changes you started with and did not respect the reasons those wouldn't be implemented (ever/soon). Nobody asked you to wait for something, you were asked to remove the support for centralization, which you weren't willing to do. Negotiations don't work when you put a gun on one party's head.

So I still stand to what I said before - the final reason for the fork was the deadlock you created. For weeks you gave j even more power than he already had and ignored the hundreds of users (including all big initial investors) who insisted on the dev fund being used as such and not to enrich a single person. You played a power game, and you lost it, because this is not about the power of certain groups but all of the community.

Maybe you will be happy in the end, because when we're all gone you may get what you want from j, he already promised you everything without constraints. Hive will be what Steem could have been without your blackmailing, and we all will see which chain will work out better in the end.

곰돌이가 @glory7님의 소중한 댓글에 $0.031을 보팅해서 $0.011을 살려드리고 가요. 곰돌이가 지금까지 총 7677번 $103.647을 보팅해서 $103.696을 구했습니다. @gomdory 곰도뤼~

곰돌이가 @gomdory님의 소중한 댓글에 $0.029을 보팅해서 $0.013을 살려드리고 가요. 곰돌이가 지금까지 총 7749번 $105.417을 보팅해서 $104.950을 구했습니다. @gomdory 곰도뤼~


Btw these are things your community should be aware of (see comments): https://steempeak.com/steem/@steem-dragon/steemdragon

Checked the link: I think it is a trolling account - like justinsteemy. Haven't heard of them before and it seems that chinese users of SCT are not familiar with them either.

Don't you think it is interesting that within 2 minutes it was voted by Dev365? Could it be that it was created by TRON Foundation?

Stay critical, the new "overlord" does have a reputation. Sometimes there is just too much smoke (sometimes he also admitted things he was busted for). You/PT will be bribed and played. Good luck.

PS: I didn't approve of 22.2 and I dislike how 22.5 happened. But things happened and here we all are. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Both will take a hit short term and perhaps steem will recover. I am sure there will be plenty of cross posters to add some content volume, but who will stay and vote on them is a question also

The negotiations never really needed to be aided. Once the centralization of the chain became an option, it should have been rejected utterly and completely.

My guess is the same that there will be lots of cross(double?) posters. We will see whether that would continue in the long run, though.

It will depend on value. There will always likely be some that will look to milk from as many sources as possible, but I have found that the ones who are looking to build homes, generally focus more on one platform - and they tend to be the ones who are also producing quality. Though, if there is an easy gateway to crosspost, perhaps more will use it.

Your reasoning is very objective.
I read from beginning to end that after the storm calm will come. Will it be possible? My question is -when will the storm end?
I'm just creative content (with many difficulties due to limited internet connection), depend on investors. Again I wonder: -will there be new investors?

To watch the storm you have to get away from it. This is how the disastrous landscape will look as it passes.

I think there will be new investors in Hive if it creates some "buzz" and gets a bit of onboarding publicity.


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The snapshot should really be from before any of this was decided, otherwise the witnesses and development end are going to make out like bandits and some people are going to be needlessly fucked because they weren’t in the know

Maybe from the day the tron announcement was made? Or the day the sock puppets came in?

Won't happen. Some always make out like bandits - but let's see where it all is in 3 years again.


well then eventually history will repeat, but I’ll be along for the ride, and have as much fun as I can, bandit ;-)

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Shouldve been powering down this whole time, but I wanted to battle Sun's sock bitches :-/ Oh well at least I'll have my hivey's

Yeah, it is what it is and those who didn't give AF will benefit as normal.


At least Sunny Boy won't get his instant power down for now :)

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TBH all it takes for Steem to pump is a bull market and some marketing.

While I know many are angry and will dump, I am not convinced it is a death sentence for Steem.

I don't pretend to know what Justin will or will not do with it now, but I find it more likely he will market it in a meaningful way than those we already know.

I mean no offense to anyone when I say that.

I assume it will become a pump and dump target, especially after a price crash. A bull market can raise all tokens and I also assume there are going to be plenty of crossposts.

It feels like Steem will become an Asian site now like weibo or whatever else is used. I have no desire to be associated with anything of Justin's and will sell everything related to him. I have no use for dictators or tech bros.

Time for us to swarm the Hive and make it what Steem never could be.

I agree completely.

Not sure. It might be that for quite some time, there is a community overlap, how large that is will depend on how each side moves going forward.

for translation use deepl - it is much better than google. You are back to Steem? What about hive?

What do you mean? Hive hasn't started up yet, so I am still here til it does at least.
I am still disappointed that all of this has happened though.

Sorry - i thought that today there will be more informations and maybe i missed it - so i saw your new/old signing as a steem original and i was confused... and disappointed, too...

I think there is more info coming today from @blocktrades - but it is ate here so I am unsure if I will be up to read it.

Thank you - of course blocktrades make sense ;-)

for translation use deepl - it is much better than google.

Looks like deepl is totally useless to translate Korean, Chinese, Japanese and all those oriental languages. };)

Looks like deepl is totally useless to translate Korean, Chinese, Japanese and all those oriental languages. };)

thank you - i did not know that!

oh, never used deepl - thanks :)

I plan to HODL my STEEM for now. I may be irritated with Justin Sun's management of STINC, but the blockchain itself may be salvageable. I plan to primarily blog on Hive, cross-posting to Steemit for a while with an invitation to join Hive.

but the blockchain itself may be salvageable.

Yep, and it might do okay once there is a catalyst to drive the change needed.

It's true these things are unsure for now. But when community will fight it will be for sure. However we need a little time because not all of us has the same mindset. There are also greedy but we never know that it might help us from promoting steem. I heard "HIVE" first from @theycallmedan but I have no idea. But after reading your content. Thanks for sharing ideas about it.


Lots of excitement to come.


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there is going to be a lot of volatility; personally, I am more leaning to hodling :)

hodling and cudling is what I generally do.

An informative masterpiece
!giphy marvelous

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I'm still kind of in a holding pattern. Still not 100% sure what I will do, I almost never am until I do it. Hard Forks in steem have never run smoothly, so I am not sure the Forking of steem will be an easy thing. I know they said an announcement will be sometime today, but perhaps they are having issues, It is back to playing the waiting game. They did get a ton of comments support and questions on their post yesterday, so perhaps a bit of reviewing going on.

I just hope I do not need to figure out how to sell my steem then buy hive tokens.