Let's talk about the new oil scenario under different approaches
Will China have the future of oil in its hands?
Personally, I think that China is a very influential country in the world economy, and it is not to be expected less, since we are talking about the most populated country in the world.
Since the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, people have had to be confined, and this has led to an overwhelming decline in global demand for oil. However, as the world population recovers from the pandemic, many countries that are economically dependent on their oil exports will need a scenario in which the demand for oil is close to what it was before the Covid-19 pandemic.
It is no secret that China is a country that continues to grow in infrastructure, where it continues to build cities, railways and finally a set of development that demands natural resources, especially oil. Therefore, once the scenario of recovery of the world population is recovered, I believe that China as a super economic power will have a large part of the future of the oil industry and the business of world energy demand in its hands.
All this possible scenario makes us fall into a rather hopeful background, and it is no more than being able to analyze the variables that can make petroleum prices rise.
Are there currently forecasts that have generated an upturn in oil prices?
There is currently a consensus among the various countries of the world, in which the sanctions of confinement and social isolation have been freed up a little, which has caused the demand for oil to rise a little compared to previous months, then on the one hand we have a rise in the demand for oil that if we combine it with some actions of OPEC and other non-OPEC countries to lower the production quotas have made prices have a normal rise in oil prices.
In conclusion, we could say that the forecasts are quite satisfactory for oil prices to increase in the coming months of this year and the beginning of 2021, since demand will tend to increase as a large part of the population that is still in confinement joins the productive apparatus of the world economy, In addition to this, the demand for oil will surely cause prices to gradually return to normal, in addition to the willingness of oil-producing countries to reduce their oil supply.
Do you think we are at the beginning of the end of the oil industry?
Although many experts think that due to the global awareness in the use of renewable energies to completely replace the energy derived from fossil fuels, I am one of those who think that would be the ideal scenario, but the reality is that the global demand for energy is not supplied by renewable energies, apart from this still the energy obtained from oil and natural gas is much cheaper than renewable energies.
I am aware that in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, oil extraction and the exploration of new fields is an activity that is being halted, since the incentive to exploit new fields is cancelled out under a scenario of low oil prices. However, once the demand for energy increases, all these exploration and production activities will have to be intensified, so I believe that there is a global oil industry for much longer.
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