WHAT JUSTIN SUN REALLY WANTS TO DO WITH STEEMINC AND THE STEEM STAKE

in Project HOPE7 months ago

There has been an utmost interesting discussion between some witnesses and Justin.
As the conversation has been taped you can listen into it by yourself and make your own view of what has happened.

https://steemit.com/steem/@ura-soul/justin-sun-conversation-with-witnesses-is-online-ned-sold-out-the-community-failed-to-disclose

For me the key points are as follows:
1.) Justin is in for the quick buck, he wants to transfer steeminc's steem stake as soon as possible to exchanges to get his investment back
2.) Justin wants a fork asap so that powerdown for the exchange stakes can be set to "instantly" in stead of 13 weeks
3.) Justin claims that NED did not mention at all, that steeminc's stake is in any way restricted in regards to voting or selling or use of the proceeds
4.) NED gives shit about us

And here is my opinion to all of this:
Justin claims that his intention was to invest for the long run but as since hostile actions have been taken by the community/witnesses (freezing of the steem stake) he now only wants to get his money back as soon as possible.
When I first heard about the freeze I was not supportive of it at all and feared that we slap the guy in the face that wants to bring money to the steem blockchain helping us to lift steem to another level.
Having him heard speaking on the call I have to say I am not so sure about this any longer.
First of all he insists he bought free transferable steem tokens and those being his sole property he can do whatever he wants with it. And this is dead wrong! I do not know what exactly steeminc promised the community to do or not do with the stake, but one thing is clear: Him being a business man he of course knows that he bought a company with all assets and liabilities... one of the liabilities possibly being restrictions on the main asset.
He insisted in the call on several occasions that this is not the case and he just bought some tokens but this is 100% wrong and if he does not accept this I do not see any way how this could play out well.
And one could also speculate why NED sold to Justin and not to some "credit-shark" helping to liquidate the position if NED's only intention was to cash in. Before there is no clear hint/proof from NED that he "screwed" Justin by not telling him about restrictions to the stake I am skeptical that Justin had really no knowledge at all about this.

And in regards to the duration of his investment:
I do not buy it that he only wants to sell it now asap, because the freeze happened.
I believe NED sold him steeminc for less than the tokens value of steeminc's stake and Justin's plan was to get back his investment pretty quick, knowing that the steem price would excel after the news about his involvement is out.
If he were in for the long run he would have looked much deeper into what he bought - I mean even if there was no time for a proper due diligence you should know what you buy into and he and his team really seem not understand what they just bought.
If they were - what would have changed after the freeze? If they knew what they bought into they knew that such a freeze was possible and now even after their very very questionable coup the witnesses and community are talking to them. So if you are in for the long run you would negotiate a common strategy with the other stake- and shareholders to create a prosperous venture --> there was no hint at all that something like this is seeked for or in the making.

So if I had to judge atm.. I tend to believe that the witnesses' "preemptiv strike" was necessary.

As he mentioned several times that he wants to solve the issue of the staked exchanges' customers' tokens I definitely believe that he gets heat from the exchanges and that we could be in for a great short squeeze if all customers withdrew their steem from the exchanges.

image.png

What is not really clear to me is about what sizes we are talking in terms of steempower backing the different parties.
One hour ago 10 witnesses of the old witnesses have been in the top 20...
now 60 Minutes later the picture has totally changed again:

image.png

I would love to understand what's the steem power behind those vests..
If I got it right atm 1 steem power is equivalent to around 1,960 vests...

so goodguy24 with 155,903 Million vests is currently voted for by 79,54 Mio. SP.
Could someone verify my calculation?

If I look at the steeminc main accounts they hold around 60 Mio. SP
misterdelegation 19.371
steem 11.669
steemit 29.219
in total 60,259 Mio. SP

So where the heck do they get the other 20 Mio. SP from? Still from the exchanges?
I thought 2 of the 3 retreated?

Can someone give some hints about what is going on atm?

Yours solarwarrior

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 7 months ago 

Dear @solarwarrior

Interesting and catchy chocie of topic.

Thanks for wraping it up and sharing your opinion.

he now only wants to get his money back as soon as possible

That would be catastrophic in consequences. If he only want's to pull out and leave void behind him, then there isn't much future for any development of steem blockchain any more :( At least I cannot see it.

So ... some low blows coming from both sides has been exchanged. Some people think that soft fork was unnecessary provokation, most seem to believe that it was necessary and justified. Either way - soft fork and justin reaction escalated this conflict.

Right now it's hard to imagine that those 2 parties could get along. Level of hostility and narrative "us versus him" is just to strong. Even if witnesses (with their support) would "destroy and teach" Justin a lesson - where will it all take us?

From business point of view, I cannot imagine any project being succesful if establish community is fighting with major investor. It's hard not to think that things will only get so much worse.

One thing that surprise me is the fact, that so many users are mentioning centralization/decentralization of steem blockchain. Previously to current situation this place wasn't decentralized at all. It was more like a democratic country, where almost all 20 major politicians know each other and collaborate and are part of one party. Only now we finally are witnessing some sort of decentralization. Wouldn't you agree?

We surely need to be prepared for heavy price drop if Justin will decide to abandon his investment, without finding anyone to replace him.

Upvoted already,
Yours, Piotr

Hey...
I would agree to most points you made. If his stake really gets sold at the end I believe only 50% of it should be sold to one single party and the other 50% over the exchanges to a huge crowd of people...
Then this danger of someone capturing the chain is over.

In regards to funds for steeminc and development... I totally agree.. whichever cash or liquid asset steeminc has left he will quickly take it out o the company and hence the situation in this regard is even worse than before TRON day...
So I would say we need a white knight that buys out Justin and subsequently sits together with the community to make a decent plan for steems future....

Looking at this now from a ex post point of time NED really screwed us over....

 7 months ago 

Indeed. Ned really did screwed many people.

HA!!! ...end of steem... I knew itegrety of steem is juopadised with Justin taking over. He wants to get out post taking his investment money back... I expected this. And steem is going to the dumps...@ned has sold Steem and the real charm of steem that the witness were protecting, growing is distroyed, distryed, distroyed.

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Interesting read @solarwarrior.

Resteemed. Upvote on the way (need to wait for voting power to recharge)

That's a pretty interesting read there.. I hadn't checked witnesses yet today

Very good analysis, I ask myself the same questions and it is obvious that Justin has plans that he is hiding from the beginning. As the saying goes "better is bad known than good to know", I am inclined to keep what we already know, but time will decide which path steemit will take.

That makes a lot of sense. Didn't trust this scumbag right from the beginning.

 7 months ago 

I'm surely not in position to lecture you @acesontop, however I think that it's best not to drop such an insults on blockchain.

 7 months ago 

@tipu curate

I am of the opinion that sun was not expecting that he will be restricted within the business he purchased (with good money, I guess)/
I don't think anyone will be fine with being controlled over your asset though.

you can best get my point of view if you think about a "normal" business..
you buy it the way it is... assets AND liabilities...
its like Justin bought a company that has gold, cash and property worth 12 Mio. USD but at the same time owes the bank 5 Mio... then he goes on and tries to sell the property.. but the bank says stop!: no we can't release the property for sale unless you pay back the debt or we find another solution... and Justin says: No.. you are unfair.. I just bought the gold, cash and property... I do not care about the company or debt.. NED did not tell me that he owes money to the bank.. that is not my problem..
that's not the way it works.. either the stake has been restricted or not.. if it has it doesn't get unrestricted just because of change of control..

Oh, I understand better now, then I think a proper discussion will help solve this issue.

I hope so.. ;-)

Ich antworte mal auf Deutsch....
ich habe den Call auch gehört und muss sagen, bin echt geschockt. Ich bin 100% bei dir, der will nur die schnelle Kohle und ist nicht bereit, wirklich Geld in die Hand zu nehmen, um die weitere Entwicklung zu bezahlen. Wenn er jetzt aber versucht zu verkaufen - und ich glaube auch, dass er mit deutlichem Abschlag gekauft hat - dann bricht der Kurs vollends zusammen.
Düstere Aussichten....

I do not see it so dire.. but we can abandon any hope of Justin putting money on the table.. hence we urgently need a plan B how to finance development.. but at the same time its also hard to argue for a moderate approach towards the steeminc stake... I mean if he does not contribute why should witnesses and community keep the thing alive and drag his 65 Mio. steem to a higher valuation level.. this situation is really bad.. but not hopeless.. I believe a fork and split is atm really the most realistic option..

This is also my view - a chain split is the most realistic option now. I do not think that this is great, but the alternative does not seem much better...

Hold up.

a fork and split is atm really the most realistic option

@solarwarrior. Do u mean splitting the blockchain into two entities, like the case of BCH?

Yeah I just refreshed the witness list and we're losing again.

Bad sign.

I believe this battle is not over yet.. but we should understand where they get the votes from...

Maybe Ned didn't know he was selling a "live" asset?

For some reason, it reminds me of when people used to sell slaves.

In hindsight his actions are really really awful.. one could claim he betrayed us..

Have you seen the responses to this twit? O.O??

https://twitter.com/realNedScott/status/1235311560152821761

yeah.. thx.. quite interesting...

Even if these often talked about stakes wouldn't exist: If the first thing I think and talk about after buying a company is selling the assets, that not a long term investment ;)

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Great content @solarwarrior. I remain of the opinion that NED choosing to give Steem out to JS is a wrong idea. Deals such as this is supposed to improve the Steem blockchain. However, a big blockchain owner purchasing another big blockchain speaks foul. I knew JS was in this for the smart cut. TRON is big but not such a serious blockchain IMO, so how was he going to improve Steem?

And about the ensuing crisis; like @crypto.piotr said in his comment — witnesses choosing to be red and blue w/ him will only makes him more uninterested and reinforce whatever smart motive he has. I love this community and I want only the best. Things gotta work.

Yeah.. I agree... atm it definitely does not look good at all... but maybe there is another twist in steem's fate and I will turn out all or the better...

 7 months ago 

Hi @solarwarrior

Your conclusions make me have the same thoughts the math is clear so there is definitely something covered that not everyone can see.

Justin doesn't know what happened, I don't think he has invested in something he didn't know what it was. I think he knows very well what he did, he also knows that here despite everything and the losses of this currency he knows that there is a lot of money that runs through these waters.

Something that if I fully agree with you is that NEd sure sold steemit.inc at a price so low that justin what he wanted was to double it in order to get what he invested.

The ball changes board at all times and we must be very attentive to the plays.

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As I read your article I became of the opinion that he bought it to merge with another application.

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