Either hive will be a win or Steemians are all fucked - here is the scientific reason why
I have calculated the fair value of the steem token before and I do it again and again and every crash to the bottom proves the model right.
The Metcalfe-value (not the price but the combined utility) of a communication network is
v = n².
Steem shows a stable number of daily active users of around 10k active unique accounts. Lets take a bot- and project-account margin of 25-50% --> so we assume
5-7.5k unique active human users.
Metcalfes Law models the basic value of a communication network: So the value of the network
users² = 25,000,000 - 56,250,000 $ which gives us a token value of ~7 - 15 cents per STEEM or a Median of
~11 Cents $ of actual fair value.
E voila: Markets in the absence hype are exactly pricing in the network value
V= Users² means that doubling the userbase brings a 4x in value...unfortunately a 50:50 split accordingly leaves both Networks A) and B) with only >>1/4<< of the original value (see Vitalik Buterin on Network Splits).
[in Model 2.) the user preferences (
p,q) are a multiplicative factor. Any good fork which gives the user what he/she wants is a chance. When it is the same shit or worse, than it will be a huge loss]
When the fork has no user advantage over A), then forks are always a net loss for both sides. BUT when the fork creates a better environment and more freedom, than it will be a long term win ...when they suck, they ALL lose! (3 cents per HIVE and 3 cents per STEEM in the long term equilibrium. Yes, exchanges can spoof prices short term and trick you (and they probably will) but it is about the market-equilibria). Good luck to us all. Be careful with your investments.
The problem with the ninja stake is that the is centralization anyways. With or without steemit inc.
I guess you will not fork off freedom/pumkin because he is one of your sock... I mean because he is an investor? Ok one central idiot less is better than one central idiot more, but there will never be serious investors when a chain is centralized by some body you has a majority of the voting-power simply be being a member of bitshares/cryptonomex or a casual user looking through bitcoin-talk.org. The early distribution was wrong to begin with.
I bet 5 steem that they will fork out accounts like exyle, good times to personally own no SP :/ See you on the other side... or not. What will you do?