The Berlin Wall fell 30 years ago...

in #news2 years ago


On the 9th of November 1989 to be precise. Europeans would write it 9/11.

It seems like I'm posting a day ahead, but if you consider that it's already well into the morning in Japan I'm okay.

The Soviet block disintegrated after that. Russian lifespan greatly deteriorated. Alcoholism, drugs. Some may draw a parallel with Oxycontin.

But now times have changed. Not everything. The AIDS epidemic in Russia is still causing ravages. Freedom of expression in China is probably like what they had in East-Germany back in the day. But hey, it is what it is. On the good side I heard China has more millionaires than the US now. They're almost done uplifting their population over the poverty level. Something to consider in light of what's happening in big cities in the US and Europe. The homelessness. The inequality. It's now affecting the US average lifespan which actually began regressing in the last few years.

A taste of things to come? Maybe, maybe not.

In the maybe:

I saw some alarmist predictions for what would happen to Western demographics should the US go through what the Soviet Union went through. It's not pretty. Take a look:
The numbers are clearly terrifying with a note at the bottom explaining what they considered when doing their predictions. But as the saying goes by when running a statistical model, crap in, crap out. If the data or the assumptions are incorrect then so are your results. So now that you're a little spooked it's time to look at the maybe not.

In the maybe not:

The West is likely engaged in a slow decline. Sharp, sudden moves are going to be mitigated because the the intelligence community anticipates virtually everything imaginable between now and the next 100 years (it's actually more). Something they actually became good at was knowing Russians. They're having more trouble with the Chinese particularly since their Chinese assets were rendered inoperative following a leak a few years back. But still the people and resources available to American intelligence officers surpass everything the rest of the world could ever come up with.

To conclude:

The next 5 days will see a few announcements coming from China & Russia. I don't know if American and European press will even mention them, but they should be worth checking. If I see anything noteworthy you can follow me on flote for updates:

It's like facebook but without Zuckerberg. And it comes with your own bitcoin address. I like it.

Photo by Rob Finlayson from FreeImages


Thanks for reminding us of this event that changed the world.

@tipu curate

Anytime. I'm a bit worried that the next few days may do the same but the other way around.

I appreciate your forward thinking post. I have known about the Deagel numbers almost since they came out, and I have dismissed them out of hand ever since. While additional stressors on Americans are surfacing, and global war can yet destroy the country, no one's estimates will be accurate in the chaos of war.

I also disagree that intelligence agencies have a handle on sound predictions even a decade out, much less a century. They may shoot for accurate prognostication, but the complexities of geopolitical machinations are unpredictably impacted by far too many factors to have any confidence in even the best reckoning based on extant conditions and likely developments. My biggest concern is that they know this, and thus simply seek to attain the greatest control in emergent exigency as possible.

This means war. The incessant revelations that these agencies and the banksters effecting policy are the primary serial mass murderers, child sex traffickers, drug smugglers, organ harvesters, and every truly evil enterprise in the world are going to have an inevitable impact, and produce highly motivated, informed, and competent opposition to the ongoing criminal brutality. Censoring these facts is becoming ever more impossible, and the extremity of the indoctrination and propaganda necessary to prevent effective opposition to savage depredations is also now so eldritch and fantastic that it is becoming impossible to keep masses of people psychologically corralled and subservient.

People dying in droves and desperate for necessary means of survival in times of war, famine, and plague aren't very capable of nominal implementation of political organization on a global scale, which is a vote for war, and war is also the ace up the sleeve of profiteering banksters, even war that leaves no refugia for bunkered elites - which has never happened on a consequential scale. The ladder of chaos leads all egomaniacal psychopaths to seek it, and these are both more votes for war.

In fact there is no vote against I am aware of. Even the advent of individual means of producing luxury and commodity goods that erodes institutional power is a vote for war, rather than against, as the longer this tech flows to the global population, the more power counterterrorist free people have to oppose the long established terrorist regime. Our best hope is that war is delayed as long as possible to disperse this pan-industrial technology nominally so that security against armed force is robust and persists despite genocidal effort by extant corrupt forces.

However, absent extinction of humanity, even the collapse of civilization can but delay the eventual decentralization of productive power that will render political power obsolete. Billions may die, but if any live the cycle of research and technological advance will never end until that tyranny we abhor is rendered utterly obsolete. This freedom is just a side effect of continually improving technology, and is the inevitable result of decentralization, which physics has established as more efficient and profitable than centralized mechanisms.

Of course we shall see what new days bring, and folks intent on survival and prosperity are required to attend to emergent developments. I will look forward to your next post.


[The Chinese are] almost done uplifting their population over the poverty level.

Not by a long shot. If you look carefully, you'll notice that China uses a different poverty line than the World Bank does. The World Bank's poverty line is USD $1.90 daily. In China, the poverty line is 2800 RMB annually. This means anyone making 2801 RMB (USD $399.70 at today's exchange rate) in a year, which comes out to USD $1.09 per day, is considered "lifted from poverty" by China's standards, while still living well below the World Bank's poverty line.
Xi Jinping even admitted this in his in a speech in Seattle on 22 Sep, 2015 (quoted on page 29 of Governance of China, Vol. II).

According to our standards, there are still 70 million people living in poverty in China. According to World Bank standards, 200 million Chinese are still living below the poverty line.

It is also worth noting that this figure is likely to be a generous estimate, given China's well-documented history of doctoring statistics.

I am aware this was a minor footnote in the grand scheme of the post and not related to the Main Idea, but it bears correction.

I stand corrected. Thank you.