Expected Value of Steem Monsters Daily Quests [14]

in #spt2 years ago

Hey guys! Have a look at how much DECs have impacted the expected value of reward cards! I have not factored in the rate for potions yet, but I could do one of those as well if people were interested :)

What's interesting is that we're not actually that much above all time high, I thought with many cards doubling or tripling in price, we'd be way above all time high for reward cards. However, this data is extremely limited to only the data I've collected, which admittedly isn't a lot.

Price History

Below is a graph of the price history. It'll look more like a graph as more info is added!
image.png

How it Was Calculated

Before calculating, I had to use the assumption that you can sell your card at the lowest price per BCX. The drop rates used were from @yabapmatt so we know that it's accurate.
image.png

Firstly, I calculated the average cost of cards per rarity, then I multiplied it by the chance of it being opened. I added these up for all the rarities and then we have the expected value of each reward card earned. After that, I just had to simply multiply that value by how many cards you earn from each rank!

Today's Data

The data is sorted in rarity, from lowest to highest. Then the average value of each rarity is calculated, which is multiplied by its chance to drop. This is all then added together to form the expected value of each reward card.
image.png

Today's Average Value: $0.1197

Expected Value of Each Rank

  • Note: this is assuming you stay at the same rank for the whole season, each season has 14 days and you complete all daily quests in the 14 days. Therefore, this estimate is quite high and realistically you aren't going to earn this much.
    image.png

Price History

  • 04/02: $0.0941
  • 07/02: $0.1051
  • 11/02: $0.0939
  • 17/02: $0.0699
  • 11/03: $0.0906
  • 16/03: $0.0874
  • 19/03: $0.0842
  • 21/03: $0.0884
  • 23/03: $0.0883
  • 31/03: $0.1018
  • 22/04: $0.0698
  • 22/06: $0.1141
Sort:  

Wow
Thanks. I just got to know it works. Really helpful.

Posted using Partiko Android

Awesome to see how that works, I can't wait to see how things look in a year!

Uhh can't wait for my reward card now!

And yeah, I am very much interested in how your calculation would Look like when potions would be factored in.

What Kind of potions would you recommend in the basis of your data?

All the best

Posted using Partiko Android

Thag is one strong curve now, I can only imagine how the cards continue to increase in value with all the money and interactions flowing through the game!

Really has made the game so much more entertaining

Posted using Partiko iOS

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Up up and UP makes it worth doing those daily quests and I also like the quest potion for an extra 5 reward cards


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