Scenarios!

in #steem8 months ago (edited)

Lots of Speculation on Tron-Steemit Acquisition: little substance

Last few days emotions are running high, lots of speculation on what was said, and what people read between the lines. What might happen, when will it happen, who will benefit, what should we do as a member of the steem blockchain community.... all these are questions on people's mind and there are opinions and speculative answers all over the place.

This leads to great discussions, I am thankful for that. There has been a lot said on the subject without much facts actually (except a couple of tweets, which were taken down, a simple AMA, and a press release where community members including me do not like one particular line). Yeah, I get it. However, please understand in real life M&A is often this way. There has been a lot told from Steem Blockchain's perpective (that is us). But lets see for a second from Tron's perspective. After all they are the one making the purchase (however small):

The diagram above should be self-explanatory and I tried to make it as simple as I can. But perhaps still there is some verbal explanation needed.

I do not consider myself a blockchain expert in any shape, form or fashion. However, I understand merger & acquisition quite a bit, been involved in quite a few myself. So I tried to see the 2 extreme scenarios in terms of cost-benefit analysis. Figuratively speaking, in terms of 3 matrices, timing; complexity of the process; and benefit to Tron. My smileys below are a simple attempt to express my view of those elements, it terms of how easy to execute and if there is any real benefit from the purchaser's perspective.

Feel free to share your view on those elements and that will actually make the discussion richer.

If I am a decision maker, and I am shown this matrix, it will be hard for me to make a decision on moving the Steem Token to Tron Network (for now). This "for now" is a fuzzy logic, if you put a gun to my head and ask the question, I will say my gut feeling is that it should be measured in years, not in months.

Sort:  

Developing and growing both chains separately is what makes sense to me. Both serve different purposes and don't necessarily compete with each other. Keeping separate, and in the future creating some sort of bridges and interoperability features among two chains could be beneficial for both.

I agree. That is the most effective and logical choice. They are different and serves different set if humans. Wells, one serves more humans than the other :) but we will always say our kid is the best... right? :)

Both are his kids now :) Sadly, new kid seems to be mistreated with repeatedly pushing the idea of “steemit migration to tron chain”.

That is just a rouge intern :) and a little bit of language barrier.

Ignore the noise :)

!ENGAGE 50



@geekgirl you have received 50 ENGAGE from @azircon!
View and trade the tokens on Steem Engine.


This tip bot is powered by witness untersatz!

For what it's worth, I do think the best plan for all would be the do nothing plan. Fund the remaining dev. work on Communities and SMT, and assess performance after 6/12/18 months.

That’s what any smart guy would do. Do nothing would be my vote

You could hype up 'do nothing' too.

Justin Sun injects capital into Steemit inc to fund developments and advertising campaign

I don't work in advertising as you can tell but surely the markets would have liked this? :)

I agree with you that they need a new intern!

:)

I have been told I make a good cup of tea and have plenty of recent printing experience.

LOL, yeah indeed!

You do not want Justin Sun Hyping anything. He dropped trx so deep because of his twitter. He would make a comment on twitter like:

Big news in x amount of days. Stay Tuned

TRX would pump. He would then release the news and just be like crypto is cool and tron is doing well. That is litterally it.

TRX would then dump waaaay harder than the baseline since everyone is dissapointed.

He is doing things in the crypto world for sure, but he is pretty dumb when it comes to what he says on twitter and how it affects his assets.

It's a drastic problem which needs to be observed and handled drastically

Posted using Partiko Android

What does this even mean?

Nothing, Taraz, but reminds me of something :)

post.gif

copyright @meesterboom

Lols. I love these.

Nothing 😉

Posted using Partiko Android

It means voters are so blind that they pumped his rep to 71.

At this point I would be willing to fund a DAO. Pay Justin Sun daily rewards to leave the Steem blockchain alone, and allow Steemit to continue to develop it. At least until he sees the light.

I think he will see the light without our help. Just be patient a bit and time will tell. There is no requirement to take any action at the point without any real information.

key word: "for now"

Agree! Nothing wrong with that :)

It’s a complex scenario for sure. I think best case is to leave the chains as is and continue for an unspecified amount of time. Eventually, there will need to be decisions made but hopefully it will be a consensus process otherwise the investment wasn’t worth much at all.

I think "do nothing" scenario is the best solution 'right now' for Tron

Ya. Knowing financial players like him though, they want results. I think he’s not going to be wise and will push for things to move quickly, which will do damage to lots of groups. One of the best parts of Steem are it’s communities.

It's the time question and at what cost. I do not think he is in a rush to do anything.

I like the simple solution that makes sense, given than Justin is not dumb, and he likes to make money. He also had his infamous dinner with Warren Buffett three weeks ago. Warren also likes to make money, and he's really effin' good at it! Undoubtedly, Justin picked up a tip or two...

  1. Justin Sun buys a stake in Steem/Steemit, Inc. that includes some (give or take) 70M Steem/SP in Steemit, Inc./Ned controlled accounts. Effectively, he's paying about 25c per Steem.

  2. Because Justin is a lot about marketing and making noise, this deal has to be hyped extensively. Perhaps some controversy thrown in, for publicity value.

  3. Justin/TRON throws something like US $25M at Steem development and marketing. 12-18 months and a bunch of innovation later, Steem has become "A Really Big Deal." And is worth $10 per token.

  4. Even after expenses, Justin nets more than half a BILLION dollars on his investment. Which is not exactly chump change...

Agree in general. This is the simplest and most likely outcome. It is profitable for Tron and helps with the visibility.

@azircon, I don't know about the Future but this News 📰 can bring lot of Eyeballs 👀 towards Steem Blockchain and in my opinion this level of Promotion always missing for Steem so it's reflecting as Win Win Situation. Let's hope for the best and stay blessed.

Posted using Partiko Android

Congratulations @azircon! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

You got more than 1000 replies. Your next target is to reach 1250 replies.

You can view your badges on your Steem Board and compare to others on the Steem Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word STOP

Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness to get one more award and increased upvotes!

So things should stay as they are for the short term ......😮😮

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.15
TRX 0.03
JST 0.022
BTC 13614.94
ETH 384.13
USDT 1.00
SBD 0.98