A thought experiment

in #steem7 months ago (edited)

What Sun is most afraid of is most likely the witnesses blocking his stake again.

Is that a reasonable fear? No it is not. Here is why:

Thought experiment 1: Let's assume Sun removes his sock puppet witnesses:
  1. Our witnesses push a hardfork that forks his stake out (hostile takeover)
  2. Exchanges reject the hardfork rendering it literally useless because all fiat bridges will be gone
    -> Sun lost his investment in Steem
    -> all Steemians lost their investment in Steem because no exchange will accept it or will even delist it or simply not upgrade to the hostile hardfork.
    -> This is a lose lose situation. This will never ever happen because all witnesses are aware of this...
Thought experiment 2: Let's assume Sun removes his sock puppet witnesses:
  1. Our witnesses push a hardfork that will make a 51% attack impossible in the future (whatever that looks like, decline voting rights or changing the governance principles that made it possible in the first place)
  2. Everyone stays on the chain and funds are safe.
  3. Sun gets his stake freed up and can now do one of the following two things:
  • Run for the hills and sell it all after 13 weeks of powerdown (shortterm lose for Steem as the price tanks heavily, but a longterm win for Steem, as his stake will be distributed among other people, the ninja minded stake problem is now gone without forking it out). Yes, I know the stake was never meant to be sold or voted with, but that is where we are now...
  • Sun can now start to keep his promises that he is here for the longrun, to make a profit and to boost the price of Steem. He can get us listed to exchanges and do his marketing thing. Then, when the price is 1$ he will sell all he has liquid and dump the price back down to 10 cents. Rinse and repeat until his stake is redistributed among other Steemians.

Don't like it that much, but that seems to be the best case scenario right now.

Thought experiment 3: Let's assume Sun removes sock puppet witnesses:
  1. The witnesses immediately freeze his stake again with a softfork. What do you think will happen?
  2. Binance will vote in 20 sock puppet witnesses again, and we will be right where we are now, the only difference would be that all hope and trust would be lost.
  3. This would likely result in the community migrating to a sister chain.

-> It leaves Sun with an empty chain and his worthless stake
-> The community now has the problem that there is no fiat bridge for NEWSTEEM. Without a DEX this will be a hard time for NEWSTEEM in the beginning. But we have forked the ninja mined stake out and probably blocked any exchange from ever voting for witnesses.

Looks like a shitty, but possible scenario to me.

What would you choose? Scenario 1,2 or 3?

Is there a 4th or 5th scenario possible? Let me know in the comments below.


Without a dex. What about all the Dex that would easily trade the new asset or run the upgraded chain altogether, like bitshares and all such clones?

You seem to not have traded on an external DEX yet. They are all SHIT compared to Bittrex. Even compared to the DEX which is integrated at steemit.com (SBD/STEEM) it sucks ass.

I have. No problems, they don't have a lot of liquidity but they aren't especially difficult or cumbersome. Maybe you need to turn off the bots and have a bit of patience for large orders to fill.. Ultimately them being shit doesn't warrant saying that we couldn't trade steem were it to fork, when clearly it wouldn't be the case.

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