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RE: Rejecting HF21 in its current state

in #steem2 years ago (edited)

I wish we could run some simulation though. But it’s just not like running a purely engineering simulation to see if a tower or bridge will collapse. With the economy, there needs to be stakes at hand and enough people taking it seriously, which a live environment can only likely do. It doesn't mean we can't attempt to make some intelligent guesses as to what should be done though.

We can apply the measures one by one, but will it achieve the intended effect that was hypothesized in the first place? I don’t necessarily see it as multiple changes by the way, as they’re in effect, just one change. For example, we can simulate the 25% downvote measure and see how things turn out (still not sure how to simulate properly). If we roll out just that.. there are other ways to circumvent the goal of the EIP, hence the other measures.

Personally I'd prefer DVs on the lower side if its delegatable. I think 25% is a yardstick proposed for something sufficient enough to turn the status quo around, accepting that it'll definitely create a lot of toxicity, while being low enough that it can't be used to push rewards in any meaningful way. If we go too low on this then it might be insufficient to turn to this place around to a new equilibrium while introducing similar levels of abuse / toxicity as 25% DV would have, rendering it a bad move.

I've tried to explore the topic more in-depth here: https://steemit.com/steem/@kevinwong/what-will-likely-happen-when-steem-s-economic-improvement-proposal-eip-is-put-into-motion

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Good post, it's the most interesting one arguing for EIP that I've read so far. As before, we'll have to agree to disagree, no need to beat the dead horse as we've discussed the matter enough. :) You can see my comment linked above for why I think bidbotting and self-voting will not see a major change. That said, I'll just say this - Games have moderators, designers, judiciaries and referees. In addition to changing the rules in a very timely manner, pay-to-win games work because abusers are banned en masse. Similarly, social networks have teams of thousands dedicated to finding abuse, banning miscreants and implementing countermeasures. Till this fundamental problem is solved, Steem will always be abused and exploited. Thing is, these problems have been solved too, as stated above. So are we going to ignore historical solutions that are backed by overwhelming evidence? In favour of mere guesswork? I get it - these solutions will take time to implement; in the meantime we can try some quick fixes and see how it goes, which is why I'm still on the fence. But we have to start thinking about the big picture.

Some things can easily be simulated (especially now that I've seen the Snax team run simulations); while others are more complex and require deeper psychological, econometric and anthropologic research. Of course, it'll be a combination of both in the end. I'm not expecting complex neural networks just yet, by the way, but as a civilisation, us humans have a rich recorded history to derive knowledge and statistics from. I mean, even from Steem itself, you can study a lot e.g. the downvoting relationships. As you may know, in the early years of Steem, I have written a lot in the past paralleling Steem to political models, historical societies, play-to-win games, evolutionary models, even universal systems! And of course, other social networks. I was mistaken because I thought Steem has a chance of being a new paradigm, so some of the previous learnings may not apply. Yet, through every single parallel I drew, Steem has very predictably been boiled down to everything I said it has a chance of not being. Steem is a society / network of humans like any other, and all of the same predictable rules apply. Anyway, there's no research, no audits, no evidence of any sort published regarding the matter. Currently, the proposals are just guesswork, and it's simply not good enough when a swath of major changes are proposed. I hope there'll be a testnet, at least, before the implementation is frozen and the hardfork is proposed. Sorry for the haphazard rant, I'll end it here!

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