Well, what do we have here? Going Vertical!!!
Holy VERTICAL GROWTH Batman!!! You guys seeing this? Holy shit. Why blockchain games? Why Steem? Why Splinterlands? I mean, maybe just show them this?
In case you've had no pulse for the last year this is the chart we call market cap. Marketcap isn't always the best number to be tracking and the way we do it isn't perfect either, but it's one steady number we've been using since nearly the beginning. The bot that generates the chart which is publicly available, free to use, and simple to create in discord. The bot looks at the lowest asking price, figures out how much all the cards of one type would be worth and sums up all the values of all the cards based on the lowest asking price and extrapolating from there. For better or worse we call that marketcap.
Two days ago right as Splinterlands cards were selling out the value was $3.33M. Today, the value is at a new All Time High of $3.86M. That's 17% growth in 2 days...
Yes, there was mild new inflation because of rewards cards printing, but if all you do is inflate the general value of the cards shouldn't change. So, I'm arguing that the small amount of rewards cards inflation isn't responsible for this.
Why we growin' like this?
What we're seeing is people combining cards and getting cards now because they know that they'll likely never be cheaper than right this second. Why? Because we stopped printing beta cards. The only place players can get them is other players. So, you can buy packs from other players on steem-engine.com or you can buy individual cards on the marketplace, and you can find good deals on whole decks in Discord. What you can't do is get new beta cards from splinterlands.io. They're SOLD OUT!!!
Players are buying cards and combining them, but there's not enough cards for everyone to do that. Also, every time someone combines them they are forever removed from the market. People buy from the weakest hands and remove the individual cards permanently from circulation. That's driving the price of the individual cards up, which in turn is driving the price of combined cards up.
How high can it go?
Well, I'm not really sure. A lot of value is driven by how much we're awarding every day through DEC, quests, and tournament prizes. We give out just shy of a Million DEC every day which is roughly $1000/day. We have tournaments for $1600 a week. We have rewards cards that change in value all the time, but it's probably in the thousands too. There's a lot driving how much players can receive.
Furthermore, DEC is uncapped, but in it's current state becomes kinda unweildy as the price goes way up. Quests are uncapped inflation, but newly inflated rewards cards aren't really driving this until more of those stop printing too. Tournaments are steady at $1600, but if the Kickstarter goes well we'll raise that up.So, I think if people are hodling to earn there's a cap that's relative to how much value is being given out by the system every day.
But if people are holding and speculating on the asset there's basically no limit. These cards are hyperdeflationary. And every day we add new players the supply of cards shrinks, but the demand keeps rising. How far that goes is unknown to me.
This is the worst bear market in the history of alt coins
What do you think will happen to the price of these cards and future cards when we're in a bull market. If we can do 17% in 2 days after sell out what do you think they'll be able to do when bulls are back in control?
These assets are safer than centralized assets
Did you see Blizzard just nuked a Master's player's rewards and banned them because they dared to say "Liberate Hong Kong?" If you don't own the keys you don't own the account. You're at the will of someone else. With blockchain you own the keys. The assets are yours. Even your bank doesn't work like that.
The ship hasn't sailed
I said 2 days ago there's a 50% chance we'll hit $4M marketcap this month. I think there's now a 75% chance we hit that by this weekend...
So, when 6M? I'm putting a new estimate out there. Based on what I'm seeing I would place a 60% chance the Splinterlands marketcap will hit $6M by the end of the month. I'll have to look at how strong demand is and how thin the markets are before I go past that timeline. But basically I think there's another 50% short term growth still hidden in these cards.
Not investment advice
I'm not a financial expert. I'm not a financial advisor. I'm a dude designing a blockchain cardgame and interacting with the players for a living. This is just me guessing what will happen based on what I think I'm seeing. I don't know your personal finances or your objectives. So, it's impossible for me to say what you should be doing with your money. Even something like Sodl your house and hodl monsters would be difficult to tell you because I don't enough about you to know if that's the right decision.
I have two main accounts: smalp and tendershepard. Most of the cards are on Smalp. yes, the value is going up a lot. No, I'm not selling. Yes, I'm extremely happy with how my cards are holding up relative to everything else in the altcoin market.