Expected Value of Steem Monsters Daily Quests [12]

in #steemmonsters2 years ago

Hey guys! With delegations out now you check out how much you can earn from the cards you just leased! Prices are down quite a lot from a few days ago, likely due to the substantial sell pressure from the end of season rewards.

Price History

Below is a graph of the price history. It'll look more like a graph as more info is added!
THIS GRAPH HAS NOT BEEN UPDATED YET
image.png

How it Was Calculated

Before calculating, I had to use the assumption that you can sell your card at the lowest price per BCX. The drop rates used were from @yabapmatt so we know that it's accurate.
image.png

Firstly, I calculated the average cost of cards per rarity, then I multiplied it by the chance of it being opened. I added these up for all the rarities and then we have the expected value of each reward card earned. After that, I just had to simply multiply that value by how many cards you earn from each rank!

Today's Data

The data is sorted in rarity, from lowest to highest. Then the average value of each rarity is calculated, which is multiplied by its chance to drop. This is all then added together to form the expected value of each reward card.
image.png

Today's Average Value: $0.0820

Expected Value of Each Rank

  • Note: this is assuming you stay at the same rank for the whole season, each season has 14 days and you complete all daily quests in the 14 days. Therefore, this estimate is quite high and realistically you aren't going to earn this much.
    image.png

Price History

04/02: $0.0941
07/02: $0.1051
11/02: $0.0939
17/02: $0.0699
11/03: $0.0906
16/03: $0.0874
19/03: $0.0842
21/03: $0.0884
23/03: $0.0883
31/03: $0.1018
02/04:$0.0820

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