The Steem-Oracle Project: World Cup Prediction Game Wrap-up
Hello Steemians! The rewards from the final 2 contests are paid out and with that, I will be wrapping up this month long Steem-Oracle World Cup prediction experiment. Most of the information will be presented in the form of infographics and I hope you guys will enjoy it 😎.
The Grand Pool ended with about 21 SBD and 19 STEEM. At today's market rate, 21 SBD got me ~17 STEEM, hence, I will be able to get 36 SBI shares with the Grand Pool. As such, I have decided to distribute 5 shares to the top 3 predictors and the remaining 7 winners get 3 shares each 😋.
Separately, as mentioned in my previous post, I will be sending 2 SBI shares each for the 4 Steemians who have supported me through all 35 contests.
The "Average Accuracy" is calculated only based on statistics of Steemians who had participated in at least 18 contests (more than half of the total). This is to ensure that the figure will not be affected by outliers from those who had participated in just a few contests.
A total of 79 Steemians predicted in more than 18 matches and the average accuracy was 44.1%. On the other hand, Wisdom of Steemians (WoS) got 20 out of 35 matches correct, representing 57.1% accuracy. Only 7 Steemians were more accurate than WoS, which means that WoS is comfortably sitting in the top 10%.
To me, this experiment soundly proved that collective wisdom is better than individual wisdom. At the start of the experiment, I mentioned that 4 conditions are needed in order for this to be possible,
- Diversity of opinion (each person should have some private information, even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts)
- Independence (people’s opinions are not determined by the opinions of those around them)
- Decentralization (people are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge)
- Aggregation (some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision)
And through this series of contests, I think it is quite clear that the Steem platform is an ideal platform which is able to fulfill these 4 conditions.
Again, in order to be qualified to be the "Most Accurate Steemian", he or she needs to participate in at least 18 contests. In fact, @dindasteem participated in 27 games and was correct in 18 of them. Absolutely remarkable!
This post wraps up the Steem-Oracle World Cup experiment. It was really a fun and exciting 1 month for me and I hope it was fun for you to. So what is next? I will be taking a short break from Steem-Oracle before I start preparation on the next series of contests. In addition, I have create a Steem-Oracle Discord server, so if you will like to interact with me and brainstorm ideas for the future of Steem-Oracle, please join me in the server. The server is quite empty now but with everyone's help, it will be built up over time 😁.
Once again I thank everyone for your participation and Looking forward to seeing everyone in the next one! As usual, if you like what I am doing, please follow @culgin and @steem-oracle for the latest updates.