Analysis of "Profitable Bid Window" for bid-bots

in #utopian-io4 years ago

Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem

Introduction

Like it or not, bid-bots are now a widely used part of Steemit.
For some, they are a tool of promotion to get their post out of the "noise" and for some, it is a way of profit.
The general action of a bid-bot is :

  • The user sends Steem or SBD to the bid-bot with the URL of a post in the memo
  • The bid-bot collects the bids
  • Depending on the total of the bids collected, the bot starts giving upvotes using its total %2 of total power ( until 100% vote) giving upvotes proportional to each users bid to total bids collected.
  • After voting window ends, the bot rests for 2,4 hours - or until it reaches 100% power to regain power.

As the ROI ( the upvote user will receive / the money user sent ) totally depends on the total bids collected ( vote value of the bot is constant) there should be a more profitable time frame, where there are fewer users sending bids to use these bots.

In this analysis, it is searched, if such a timeframe really exists.

Scope of Analysis

Analysis date: 15 May 2018
Analysis timeframe: 07 May 2018 00:00 to 13 May 2018 24:00
Bots analyzed:

All times are in UTC.

Tools

  • Finding the upvotes given to all users

For this analysis the tool SteemBotAnalysis GitHub is used.
I have mainly built this tool to analyze the voting behaviors ( vote date-post date) of the users but it is very suitable for such analysis with the added properties like :

  • Timeframe selection
  • % Vote given indication
    (thanks from here to @transisto for his recommendations on the added properties)


Selecting the bot and the time frame, all the upvote data of the bot is received.

Finding the bid sent

For the bid sent, two methods should be chosen.
1- Write a script to actually take the transfer from block-chain data
2- Put the data to a spreadsheet

  • Determine the voting windows
  • Take the minimum bet of the bot from @yabapmatt's SteemBotTracker
  • Define the minimum vote given for each voting window
  • Estimate the bids sent as minimum vote given for minimum bid

I have taken the second approach and validated that it works perfectly unless the minimum bid changes within the analysis week.

Calculate the Gross - ROI

The gross ROI is basically (SBD Value of upvote received) / (Bid Sent as SBD)
Since we have all the data, it is just spreadsheet calculation.

SpreadSheet for raw data

Results

The Gross-ROI findings for 3 bots during 1 week are as follows :

@buildawhale

@rocky1

@therising

Looking at the 1 week data we can conclude that :

  • It is difficult to define a maximum ROI voting window time but we can easily see a much stable time which is between 00:00 UTC to 9:30 UTC for everyday.
  • The stable zone generally gives more ROI than unstable zone, less gambling.
  • For all three bots, it is clearly seen that bidding on Sunday gives much more ROI compared to other days.

As a final word, I really would like to see if Hawthorne Effect ( observation changes behavior) will work on this analysis.
Just because we have determined a "stable timeframe" and "max ROI date" can change the voting behavior of people and a new study would be required.

Proof of Authorship

GitHub for SteemBotAnalysis

Contact

Links

SteemBotAnalysis
GitHub for SteemBotAnalysis

SpreadSheet for raw data

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Hi @firedream, great work! Your contribution was a bit of a corner case for Utopian in the context of rewarding work on open source projects. Looking into 3 individual bots is a rather narrow scope for an analysis of Steem as a whole, with neither of them being open source on its own. Picking a broader scope for the analysis of an open source project brings you more in line with the Utopian mission.

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@crokkon, thank you very much for all your advices.
They are precious.
FD.

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This is good input man! We all want to maximize our bot investments, and this certainly helps. I guess the bots get unstable at the moment that the US wakes up :D I'm blessed to be located here in Belgium :p

Very insightful!

It's crazy how much some people spend on bots. Sometimes hundreds of dollars. Using bots is a roll of the dice and you end up losing more than you do even just breaking even. I think the main reason I dislike bots is - it's like poor people giving rich people even more money.

Thanks again for the insight!

@mikeycolon, thank you for your comment.
As I said in my post, it is not a matter of liking anymore...a reality we live with.
Check this post by @crokkon to see how deep is the issue.
https://steemit.com/utopian-io/@crokkon/on-counting-paid-voting-services-and-their-number-was-never-that-high
FD.

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``. . . it is clearly seen that bidding on Sunday gives much more ROI compared to other days.''

Like with the econometrics paper about the stock market and Mondays and Tuesdays, this will probably change when Utopian upvotes this post and people see it and it becomes more widely held knowledge. If people know there's money on the table and know where is this table there's very soon no money on the table. Feedback. Stir the barrel and lo! gone is the barrel.

;)

As a final word, I really would like to see if Hawthorne Effect ( observation changes behavior) will work on this analysis. Just because we have determined a "stable timeframe" and "max ROI date" can change the voting behavior of people and a new study would be required.
This is what I am clearly expecting @Tibra.
I will keep on analyzing Sundays.

To me it is too much resembling the fluid flow, starting laminar and getting turbulant..

Hey @firedream
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