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RE: Analysis : Posts created per day and Organic Ratio

in #utopian-io4 years ago (edited)

20.000 unique users each day; and probably 25.000 unique users over the course of a week. A lot of bots not posting and some bots posting content every 15 minutes: something like that. Steem needs to get things moving ... launched two years ago ... Youtube is getting worse each day ... there needs to be some major new use cases to bring up daily use to at least a hundred thousand. (Whoever does that can fairly say to have more than quadrupled the user retention of one of the major social media platforms.) Only when there are sufficiently many users can spam and hugger mugger become an insignificant part of the platform; same systems behave differently at different scales.

Imagine two games where, when two individual meet, they do something. So in the first game they give each other cake. In the second game they punch each other. Else they're all randomly walking.

As you get more users the difference in outcome in the two games becomes greater. One has more persons eating more cake; more happiness. The other has more persons getting hurt; more unhappiness. But keep adding persons playing each game and they become more and more the same. Despite the major difference in game dynamics.

Everybody is piling up and probability of having to feed or punch somebody who has to feed or punch somebody and get fed or punched first goes up for an increasing number of players faster than number of players grows. Which paradoxically results in very large games almost nobody being fed and almost nobody being punched; just millions standing around waiting. The same.

The change in outcome contributed by change of scale, or buffering of outcomes, or ..., may be greater than change in outcome contributed by change of all other dynamical variables or even transformation and change of the system dynamics.

I think Steem would rapidly improve if there were 10 million accounts and at least 100 thousands unique users every day.

Will make a post on this subject now that @firedream gathered data and provided tools. Maybe do some modeling. Let's see if we can predict what current scale contributes to different parts of the typical user experience.


There is also another point.
Think that all the 20 000 users are non-spammers and original content creators.
Nobody is using bid-bots.
The steem created per day for the reward pool is approximately 50 000 Steem/day.
Which means, 40 000 posts will receive 1.25 Steem (3.75 SBD with 3.00 feed-price) on average.

We also know that bid-bots use 12 000 steem per day to give to approximately 3000 posts.
This leaves us to 38 000 steem in reward pool for 37 000 posts further decreasing the average pay out to 1 Steem per post.

Can you see the noise? These 37 000 posts each day must be heard by whales or dolphins to have a meaningful reward.

It is an issue to further think how power can be given to community so that every good post has an equal chance of being rewarded.


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